As of December 22, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at $88,632(CoinMarketCap live data), down from its recent all-time high above $108,000. While retail investors celebrate new highs, public miners are quietly hemorrhaging cash – with average all-in production costs now hovering between $137,000 and $145,000 per BTC (CoinShares, JPMorgan estimates). Hashrate continues to climb despite negative margins, sparking renewed “miner death spiral” fears. Yet the math tells a different story: capitulation is real, but a total collapse is unlikely thanks to strategic pivots and structural changes in the industry.
Why Miners Are Losing Money at $90K BTC
Post-2024 halving (reward cut to 3.125 BTC), combined with soaring energy prices and ASIC efficiency plateaus, has pushed breakeven costs to historic highs:
- Cash costs alone: ~$74,000–$85,000 per BTC
- All-in sustaining costs (including depreciation, debt): $137K–$145K
- Current hashprice: below $35/PH/day – unprofitable for 70-80% of the network
Public miners like Marathon, Riot, and CleanSpark are burning through cash reserves or issuing equity/debt at a frantic pace to stay afloat.
The Death Spiral Myth vs Reality
The classic “death spiral” narrative claims miners sell BTC → price drops → more miners offline → hashrate crashes → security compromised.
2025 data shows a ceiling:
| Factor | 2021-2022 Capitulation | 2025 Reality |
|---|---|---|
| Hashrate Drop | -50% (China ban) | Only -8% so far (selective shutdowns) |
| Miner Selling | Heavy OTC dumps | Strategic, lower volume |
| Energy Access | Sudden loss | Long-term contracts + AI pivots |
| Financing | Limited | $6B+ raised in 2025 for diversification |
Result: Painful, but not fatal.
How Miners Are Surviving (and Thriving) in 2025
- AI & HPC Pivot: Core Scientific ($3.5B CoreWeave deal), IREN ($9.7B Microsoft), Riot (112MW HPC) – AI hosting now 30-50% of revenue for many.
- Debt/Equity Raises: $6B+ capital influx keeps lights on.
- Efficiency Gains: New ASICs (3nm chips) and renewable contracts lower costs 15-20%.
- HODL Strategies: Some miners borrow against BTC instead of selling.
Outcome: Hashrate expected to stabilize or grow into 2026 despite short-term pain.
What This Means for Bitcoin Price in 2025–2026
| Scenario | BTC Price Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Mild Capitulation | $75K–$85K floor, quick recovery | High |
| Severe Sell-Off | $60K–$70K temporary | Medium |
| No Death Spiral | $100K+ by mid-2026 | Most Likely |
Historical precedent: 2022 capitulation led to hashrate ATH within 18 months.
Should You Worry About a Miner Death Spiral?
No. While individual miners face bankruptcy risk (several already filing Chapter 11), the network is more resilient than ever. AI diversification, cheaper renewables, and institutional capital act as shock absorbers.
For traders on Tapbit: Use this dip for accumulation—low fees on BTC futures help hedge downside.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin miners are undeniably hurting at $90K, with production costs 50%+ above spot. But the “death spiral” narrative ignores 2025’s biggest shift: mining is no longer just about Bitcoin. The pivot to AI data centers has created a floor under hashrate and a lifeline for the industry.
Long-term bullish. Short-term volatile. Trade smart on Tapbit.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Mining economics and BTC price are highly volatile. Data as of December 22, 2025.
