Published: February 2, 2026 | Updated: February 2, 2026 | Tapbit On-Chain & Institutional Flows Desk
On February 2, 2026 Bitcoin fell below $78,000 — its lowest level since mid-November 2025 — while MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock closed up 4.55% at $149.71. This striking divergence tells a clear story: retail and leveraged traders are facing brutal liquidations, while large institutions and corporate treasuries appear to be quietly accumulating on weakness.
On-chain analytics confirm the pattern: approximately 69,000 BTC were realized at a net loss on February 2 — the first time Bitcoin long-term holders have collectively booked net losses since the depths of 2023. Meanwhile futures liquidations exceeded $1.7 billion in 24 hours, with long positions dominating the carnage. This article examines the “institutions vs retail” dynamic in the current crash, key on-chain evidence, ETF flow context, technical levels, MSTR’s counter-trend strength, and practical positioning approaches on Tapbit.
Bitcoin Crash Snapshot – February 2, 2026
| Metric | Value | Change / Context |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Price | ~$77,418–$78,900 | Low $77,418; down ~6–8% intraday |
| 24h Liquidations (Futures) | $1.7B+ | Mostly long-side; largest since Oct 2025 |
| Realized Loss Volume | ~69,000 BTC | First net loss day for holders since 2023 |
| MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock | $149.71 | +4.55% on the day |
| Spot BTC ETF Flows (recent week) | –$1.1B+ | Ongoing institutional rebalancing |
| Fear & Greed Index | ~20–25 | Extreme Fear territory |
Institutions vs Retail: The Divergence in Action
The February 2 crash exposed a classic late-cycle pattern: retail and leveraged traders get flushed while institutions and corporate treasuries quietly accumulate.
Retail / Leveraged Traders (the liquidations)
- ~$1.7B+ liquidated in 24 hours — predominantly long positions
- ~69,000 BTC realized at a net loss — first widespread LTH loss-taking since 2023 bear market lows
- Short-term holders (STHs) underwater; speculative late entrants forced out
Institutions / Corporate Treasuries (the rebound)
- MicroStrategy (MSTR) closed +4.55% at $149.71 despite BTC’s crash
- MSTR trades at a compressed NAV premium → institutions appear to view weakness as buying opportunity
- Whale wallets show accumulation below $85k–$82k zones
- Long-term holder supply continues rising; exchange balances keep declining
This split behavior is typical of late-cycle phases: retail panic sells at the bottom while institutions accumulate quietly before the next leg higher.
Technical Levels & Sentiment Signals (BTC/USD – Feb 2)
Current ~$77,418–$78,900
- Immediate Support: $76,000–$77,000 (intraday capitulation zone)
- Next Major Support: $74,000–$76,000 (200-week MA area)
- Deeper Bear Target: $70,000–$72,000 (if ETF selling accelerates)
- Immediate Resistance: $80,000–$82,000 (prior support cluster)
- RSI (daily): ~25–35 → extremely oversold
- Fear & Greed Index: ~20–25 (Extreme Fear) → classic capitulation reading
Trading Strategies & Positioning on Tapbit
- Sign Up on Tapbit (0% maker fees)
- Deposit USDT or JPY via bank transfer / P2P
- Capitulation accumulation: DCA BTC/USDT in tranches at $77,000–$78,500 (high-volume exhaustion zone)
- Relief rally play: Long BTC/USDT perpetuals on confirmed reclaim of $80,000–$82,000 (20–50x leverage, isolated margin)
- MicroStrategy proxy: Long MSTR/USDT (if listed) or BTC/USDT as correlated play
- Safe-haven hedge: Long XAU/USDT perpetuals if risk-off continues
- Risk control: Max 1–2% account risk per trade; isolated margin; trailing stops below $76,000
Conclusion & 2026 Outlook
The February 2026 Bitcoin crash — BTC briefly below $78,000, $1.7B+ in futures liquidations, ~69,000 BTC realized at a net loss — has exposed a classic late-cycle dynamic: retail and leveraged traders get flushed while institutions and corporate treasuries quietly accumulate on weakness. MicroStrategy’s +4.55% rebound to $149.71 despite the BTC drop underscores this divergence. On-chain signals show continued long-term holder accumulation and declining exchange balances — hallmarks of capitulation rather than structural bear market onset.
Trade Bitcoin dips & institutional accumulation on Tapbit:
- Sign Up on Tapbit (0% maker fees)
- Login & Deposit
- Live BTC/USDT Spot & Perpetual Charts
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk of loss. Prices are highly volatile and can change rapidly. On-chain metrics and ETF flows do not guarantee future price action. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose completely.
