Updated: February 5, 2026
MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) — now officially rebranded as Strategy Inc — has seen its shares collapse more than 70% from the November 2024 peak, trading near the $120–130 zone in early February 2026. The drawdown closely tracks Bitcoin’s own retreat from ~$126,000 to the low-to-mid $70,000s, turning the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder into one of the most volatile equities in the market.
On February 4, 2026 Canaccord Genuity cut its MSTR price target sharply from $474 to $185 while maintaining a **Buy** rating — a move that reflects lower near-term expectations but continued long-term optimism tied to Bitcoin’s cycle. This article explains the scale of the decline, MicroStrategy’s current Bitcoin treasury position, why the stock behaves like a highly leveraged BTC proxy, the reasoning behind Canaccord’s target cut, key risks, and realistic scenarios for recovery in 2026.
MicroStrategy’s Latest Share Price and Drawdown
As of February 5, 2026, MSTR trades in the $120–130 area, down approximately 72% from its November 2024 high and roughly 15% year-to-date despite Bitcoin still sitting well above its 2024 average levels.
The equity has become one of the purest leveraged plays on Bitcoin price action: when BTC rallies, MSTR tends to outperform significantly due to its premium to net asset value (NAV) and embedded leverage; when BTC corrects, the premium compresses and leverage works in reverse, producing outsized losses.
How MicroStrategy Became the Biggest Corporate Bitcoin Holder
Strategy Inc holds approximately 712,647–713,000 BTC (latest public filings and on-chain estimates as of early February 2026), representing roughly 3.4% of Bitcoin’s total supply. The average acquisition price across all purchases stands near $76,000 per coin, giving the treasury a current mark-to-market value of roughly $55–$56 billion at Bitcoin prices around $78,000.
The company has funded its ongoing accumulation through a combination of:
- At-the-market (ATM) equity offerings — regularly selling common stock
- Convertible notes and preferred stock issuances
- Balance-sheet leverage (low-cost debt)
This structure turns MSTR into a leveraged Bitcoin vehicle — amplifying both upside and downside relative to direct BTC ownership or spot ETFs.
Why MSTR Is Collapsing: The Bitcoin Leverage Effect
MSTR’s share price exhibits very high beta to Bitcoin (~2.5–4× in both directions depending on market regime). The recent ~35–38% correction in BTC from the $126,000 peak has been magnified in MSTR due to:
- NAV premium compression: MSTR often trades at a 1.5–3× premium to the net asset value of its Bitcoin treasury. During corrections, this premium shrinks or disappears, accelerating the decline.
- Equity & debt financing dilution: Ongoing ATM offerings and convertible issuance dilute shareholders when price is falling.
- Leverage unwind: Many MSTR holders use margin or options → forced selling cascades during drawdowns.
- Sentiment & positioning: MSTR attracts tactical traders who amplify volatility rather than long-term HODLers.
The stock is effectively a **high-beta Bitcoin ETF with corporate overhead and financing complexity** — which is why it falls faster and harder than BTC itself in risk-off periods.
Canaccord Slashes Price Target to $185 – But Keeps Buy Rating
On February 4, 2026 Canaccord Genuity reduced its MSTR price target from $474 to $185 while reiterating a Buy rating. The new target implies significant downside from current levels (~$120–130) but still reflects long-term optimism tied to Bitcoin’s cycle.
Key reasoning behind the cut:
- Lower near-term Bitcoin price expectations
- Continued dilution risk from ATM offerings
- Potential for further NAV premium compression if BTC weakness persists
- Recognition that MSTR remains one of the purest leveraged ways to gain Bitcoin exposure
Street consensus remains above $400 in some aggregates, highlighting divergence between analysts who focus on short-term leverage risks and those who emphasize long-term Bitcoin treasury value.
Key Risks for MicroStrategy Investors
- Bitcoin price risk — a deeper BTC correction (below $70k–$74k) would further pressure MSTR and potentially invert the NAV premium.
- Financing & dilution risk — ongoing equity issuance at depressed prices is highly dilutive.
- Debt covenants & balance-sheet pressure — while manageable, prolonged unrealized losses could raise creditor concerns.
- Business risk — the legacy software/analytics business is now a small contributor; the equity is mostly a leveraged BTC bet.
Potential Upside Scenario If Bitcoin Recovers
If Bitcoin revisits or exceeds prior highs in 2026–2027, several tailwinds could drive outsized MSTR performance:
- Mark-to-market gains on the ~713,000 BTC treasury would flow to equity value
- NAV premium expansion during euphoria phases (historically 2–4×)
- Continued opportunistic accumulation at lower average cost basis
- Potential for corporate Bitcoin treasury narrative to gain broader acceptance
Analysts maintaining Buy ratings (including Canaccord at $185) argue that the long-term Bitcoin thesis remains intact, making current weakness a potential entry point for high-conviction investors.
Trading & Positioning on Tapbit – February 2026
- Sign Up on Tapbit (0% maker fees)
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- MSTR proxy play: Long BTC/USDT perpetuals (20–50x leverage, isolated) as a cleaner way to capture Bitcoin upside without corporate dilution risk
- Capitulation dip buy: DCA BTC/USDT on pullbacks to $74k–$78k exhaustion zones
- Risk-off hedge: Long XAU/USDT perpetuals if macro fears intensify
- Risk control: Max 1–2% account risk per trade; trailing stops below key supports
FAQs – MicroStrategy Stock Crash & Outlook (February 2026)
Why has MicroStrategy stock crashed over 70%?
MSTR acts as a highly leveraged Bitcoin proxy. Bitcoin’s ~35–38% correction from $126K has been amplified by NAV premium compression, equity dilution from ATM offerings, and tactical trader positioning.
What is MicroStrategy’s average Bitcoin purchase price?
Approximately $76,000 per BTC across all purchases (latest filings & estimates as of early February 2026).
Is MSTR still a good way to gain Bitcoin exposure?
It offers leveraged upside (and downside) compared to direct BTC or spot ETFs. Suitable for high-conviction cycle believers willing to accept dilution & volatility risk.
What does Canaccord’s $185 target mean?
It implies near-term downside but continued long-term optimism tied to Bitcoin’s cycle. The Buy rating signals analysts still expect eventual recovery if BTC stabilizes or rallies.
Conclusion & 2026 Outlook
MicroStrategy’s 70%+ stock crash from its November 2024 peak reflects its role as a leveraged Bitcoin vehicle — magnifying BTC’s own ~35–38% correction through NAV premium compression, ongoing equity dilution, and tactical positioning. With ~713,000 BTC held at an average cost near $76,000, the company remains the largest corporate treasury holder and a high-beta proxy for Bitcoin price action.
Canaccord’s reduction of its price target to $185 (from $474) while keeping a Buy rating highlights the tension between short-term leverage risks and long-term Bitcoin conviction.
Track Bitcoin & trade volatility on Tapbit:
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency and equity trading involve significant risk of loss. Prices are highly volatile and can change rapidly. Corporate Bitcoin holdings, analyst targets and financing structures do not guarantee future performance. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose completely.
