Published & Updated: February 6, 2026 | Tapbit XRP & Elliott Wave Analysis Desk
XRP collapsed to a one-year low of $1.36 on February 6, 2026 — a 14% single-day drop and roughly **34–40%** weekly loss depending on measurement — amid heavy altcoin selling pressure, negative funding rates, and broader market deleveraging. The move broke multi-month support at $1.50–$1.55 and confirmed a clean bear pennant breakdown on elevated volume.
Popular analyst Egrag Crypto interprets the violent RSI plunge into deeply oversold territory as a classic “momentum reset” — not the start of a deeper bear market, but the completion of a major Wave 2 correction in a larger bullish Elliott Wave cycle. He argues this shakeout clears weak hands and sets the stage for a powerful **Wave 3** advance, historically the longest and strongest impulse wave. This article examines Egrag’s analysis, current technical structure, key price targets for 2026, supporting indicators, risk factors, and actionable trading frameworks for the current XRP capitulation phase.
Egrag Crypto’s Core Thesis – RSI Oversold = Wave 2 Completion
Egrag’s February 2026 update emphasizes the following points:
- The sharp drop in RSI (to sub-20 levels on multiple timeframes) mirrors historical “momentum resets” that ended Wave 2 corrections and preceded explosive Wave 3 rallies.
- XRP is not in a minor Wave 4 pullback within a larger Wave 3 — the structure and severity of the decline (breaking $1.40 support) indicate the entire Wave 2 from the 2024–2025 advance has concluded.
- Unlike previous cycles where XRP consolidated tightly near all-time highs, the current range expansion and oversold conditions are healthy shakeouts before the next impulse leg higher.
- Wave 3 targets align with Fibonacci extensions — most probable zone $6.5–$8 (1.618 extension), with stretch targets $17–$20 if momentum accelerates.
- Ultimate cycle Wave 5 could reach $27+ by late 2026–2027, assuming nested impulses and positive macro/regulatory catalysts.
Egrag stresses that extreme oversold RSI readings during fear phases have repeatedly marked high-probability reversal zones for XRP — especially when accompanied by volume exhaustion and whale accumulation signals.
Current Technical Structure & Key Levels (February 6, 2026)
Current Price: ~$1.42–$1.45 (partial bounce from $1.36 low)
- Immediate Support: $1.36–$1.38 (intraday low zone)
- Critical Support: $1.30–$1.32 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement from 2025 low to high + psychological level)
- Next Major Support: $1.20–$1.22 (bear pennant measured move target)
- Deeper Bear Case: $1.05–$1.10 (2024 consolidation zone if $1.22 fails)
- Immediate Resistance: $1.51–$1.55 (prior breakdown level + 20-day EMA)
- Medium-Term Resistance: $1.75–$1.80 (50-day EMA cluster + triangle breakout target)
- RSI (daily): ~18–25 → extreme oversold, historically powerful reversal zone
- Fear & Greed Index (crypto-wide): ~14–19 → capitulation territory
Supporting Indicators & On-Chain Signals
- Futures Open Interest Collapse — XRP OI dropped ~43% in two weeks ($4.55B → $2.61B), indicating heavy long liquidation and reduced leverage risk for the next move higher.
- ETF Flows — Cumulative XRP ETF outflows slowed in early February; any reversal would be strongly bullish.
- Whale Behavior — Wallets >1,000 XRP continued net accumulation on dips (CryptoQuant cohort data).
- Volume Profile — High-volume node at $1.30–$1.40 suggests strong buyer defense if retested.
- RSI Divergence — Bullish hidden divergence forming on 4H/1D charts — price makes lower low while RSI makes higher low.
XRP 2026 Price Targets – Bull, Base & Bear Scenarios
| Scenario | 2026 Target Range | Probability Factors |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish (Wave 3 Confirmation) | $8–$17 (initial), $20+ extension | ETF inflows resume, $1.51–$1.55 reclaim on volume, RSI divergence confirmation, macro stabilization |
| Base (Running Flat Correction) | $5–$10 | Holds $1.61 April 2025 low as support, triangle breakout above $1.75–$1.80 |
| Bearish (Expanded/Regular Flat) | $1.51–$3.45 | Breaks $1.30–$1.32 → deeper test of $1.20 measured move or $0.95–$1.05 zone |
Trading Strategies on Tapbit – February 2026
- Sign Up on Tapbit (0% maker fees)
- Deposit USDT or JPY via bank transfer / P2P
- Capitulation accumulation: DCA XRP/USDT on pullbacks to $1.30–$1.38 exhaustion zones
- Wave 3 confirmation entry: Long XRP/USDT perpetuals on reclaim of $1.51–$1.55 (20–50x leverage, isolated margin)
- Risk-off hedge: Long XAU/USDT perpetuals if macro/geopolitical fears intensify
- Risk control: Max 1–2% account risk per trade; trailing stops below $1.30
FAQs – XRP Elliott Wave & RSI Reset (February 2026)
What does Egrag’s “momentum reset” mean for XRP?
The sharp RSI drop into extreme oversold territory signals the end of Wave 2 correction — shaking out weak hands and setting up a powerful Wave 3 rally. Historically, such resets precede the strongest impulse moves.
What is the main Wave 3 target for XRP in 2026?
Egrag’s primary target is $6.5–$8 (1.618 Fibonacci extension), with stretch targets $17–$20 if momentum accelerates. Wave 5 could push $27+ longer-term.
Is $1.36 the bottom for XRP?
Possible local floor if support holds and volume confirms exhaustion. Break below opens risk toward $1.20–$1.22 (measured move). Sustained hold above $1.51–$1.55 would invalidate bear case and signal Wave 3 start.
Should I buy XRP after the RSI reset?
$1.30–$1.38 offers favorable risk/reward for staged entries if conviction is high. Wait for $1.51–$1.55 reclaim + higher volume before aggressive longs. Below $1.30 risks deeper test toward $1.20–$1.22.
Conclusion & Near-Term Outlook for XRP
XRP’s collapse to $1.36 — a 14% daily and 34–40% weekly drop — confirmed a bear pennant breakdown and triggered heavy long liquidations. Egrag Crypto interprets the violent RSI plunge as a bullish “momentum reset” completing Wave 2 and priming a powerful Wave 3 advance with initial targets $6.5–$8 and stretch levels $17–$20 in 2026.
While short-term pressure remains elevated, the combination of extreme oversold conditions (RSI ~18–25), capitulation sentiment (Fear & Greed ~14–19), and continued whale accumulation closely resembles previous XRP bottoms that preceded explosive rallies.
Trade XRP volatility & Wave 3 setups on Tapbit:
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk of loss. Prices are highly volatile and can change rapidly. Elliott Wave counts, RSI signals and analyst targets are interpretive and do not guarantee future results. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose completely.
