Updated: February 26, 2026 | Tapbit Crypto News & Updates
Bitcoin is once again at a crossroads in 2026. After a sharp drawdown and intense debate over whether the market has already flushed the weak hands, traders are split into two camps:
- Bear trap thesis: the sell-off is an “orderly deleveraging,” and BTC is building a base for a new impulse higher.
- Bear continuation thesis: the market is still in a mid-stage bear, and liquidity + whale selling pressure could drive a revisit toward $60,000—or lower.
As of the latest market snapshot while writing, BTC is around $68,251. (Crypto markets are volatile—always re-check live quotes.)
If you want to track BTC and the broader market in real time, you can use Tapbit Price.
Table of Contents
- Signal #1: ETF Flow Consistency (Demand “Truth Serum”)
- Signal #2: Whale Deposits to Exchanges (Distribution vs. Panic)
- Signal #3: Capitulation Metrics (MVRV Z-Score / Seller Exhaustion)
- Signal #4: Miner Stress (Puell / Treasury Selling)
- Signal #5: Stablecoin Liquidity (Fuel for the Next Leg)
- Verdict: The $60K vs $150K Playbook
Signal #1: ETF Flow Consistency (Demand “Truth Serum”)
In 2026, spot BTC ETF flows have become one of the cleanest “demand truth” indicators. When flows stay consistently positive during volatility, it suggests real allocation demand is absorbing supply. When flows weaken or flip negative, it often signals risk-off positioning.
Bullish setup: sustained inflows (especially during pullbacks) + stabilization in BTC spot levels often reinforce a bear-trap thesis.
Bearish setup: flows fade while price breaks key supports—this increases the probability that the market is still in distribution.
Signal #2: Whale Deposits to Exchanges (Distribution vs. Panic)
On-chain analysts have been highlighting whale-led exchange deposit activity. One widely cited metric is the Exchange Whale Ratio—the share of exchange inflows coming from the top deposits. Recent reports noted this ratio rising to about 0.64, the highest reading since 2015, suggesting large holders are a major driver of exchange inflows (often interpreted as selling pressure or repositioning).
Bullish setup: whale inflows spike (panic/distribution), but price stops going down—this can mark seller exhaustion.
Bearish setup: whale inflows stay elevated while liquidity thins—this often precedes deeper drawdowns.
Signal #3: Capitulation Metrics (MVRV Z-Score / Seller Exhaustion)
Capitulation indicators try to answer: “Has the market reached levels where historically the reward-to-risk becomes asymmetric?”
Two popular approaches are:
- MVRV-based Z-scores (market value vs realized value extremes)
- Seller exhaustion dashboards combining multiple signals (MVRV Z-score, SOPR, and spending behavior)
Recent commentary around Z-score readings suggests Bitcoin has been entering “deep capitulation” zones comparable to prior major bottoms. However, capitulation indicators do not guarantee immediate reversal—markets can stay “cheap” longer than traders expect.
Bullish setup: capitulation-zone readings + decreasing sell pressure + reclaim of key technical levels.
Bearish setup: capitulation readings remain extreme but price keeps trending down—meaning structural demand isn’t showing up yet.
Signal #4: Miner Stress (Puell / Treasury Selling)
Miner behavior matters because miners are a consistent source of natural BTC supply. In stressed conditions, miners may increase selling to cover operating costs (energy, debt, capex), especially if profitability compresses.
Two things to watch:
- Miner profitability indicators like the Puell Multiple (a proxy for revenue stress)
- Corporate treasury behavior—some miners have recently sold significant BTC holdings to fund AI/HPC expansion, which can alter supply dynamics.
Bullish setup: miner stress stabilizes + forced selling fades, allowing price to rebuild.
Bearish setup: ongoing miner-driven selling pressure + weak demand can accelerate a drop toward major psychological levels like $60K.
Signal #5: Stablecoin Liquidity (Fuel for the Next Leg)
Stablecoin flows act like “risk capital readiness.” When stablecoin inflows to exchanges rise meaningfully, it often signals buying power returning. When stablecoin inflows dry up (or net outflows dominate), it suggests reduced risk appetite and weaker marginal demand.
Recent market reporting highlighted a major decline in net USDT exchange inflows compared to prior months—interpreted as softer immediate “buying ammo.”
Bullish setup: stablecoin inflows recover while BTC holds support—often a recipe for sharp rebounds.
Bearish setup: stablecoin liquidity stays tight while whales keep depositing—often ends with another leg down.
Verdict: The $60K vs $150K Playbook
Instead of betting purely on headlines, traders can frame 2026 as a two-scenario market and let the signals decide.
Scenario A: $60K Retest (Bear Continuation)
- ETF flows weaken or turn net negative
- Whale deposits remain elevated
- Stablecoin inflows stay depressed
- Price loses key supports and fails to reclaim them quickly
Scenario B: Path Back to $150K (Bear Trap / Recovery)
- ETF flows stay constructive during pullbacks
- Whale selling pressure cools or gets absorbed without new lows
- Capitulation indicators + seller exhaustion align with a higher low
- Stablecoin liquidity returns as risk appetite improves
Tapbit Workflow: Track the Signals Without Overtrading
- Sign up on Tapbit
- Log in and build a BTC watchlist
- Monitor BTC and market volatility on Tapbit Price
- Trade only when your chosen scenario is being confirmed by multiple signals (not just one)
Final Thoughts
The “bear trap” question in 2026 is not about predicting a single number—it’s about reading whether real demand is returning while sell pressure fades. If ETF flows remain strong and stablecoin liquidity re-enters the market, BTC can rebuild toward higher targets. If whale-driven exchange inflows persist while liquidity stays thin, $60K becomes a realistic magnet zone.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Crypto is volatile—always do your own research and manage risk.
