Last Updated: January 19, 2026 | Tapbit On-Chain Intelligence
A disciplined 12-year-old Bitcoin wallet recently offloaded another 500 BTC (≈ $47.7 million at time of transaction) as part of a methodical profit-taking strategy that began in late 2024. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional OTC desks absorbed roughly 30,000 BTC in the same mid-January period — approximately 5× the amount of new coins mined daily. This classic “weak hands out, strong hands in” dynamic signals a structural reset typical of mature bull phases: long-term holders de-risk while professional capital quietly accumulates discounted supply for the next major leg higher.
Bitcoin Price & On-Chain Snapshot – January 19, 2026
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Spot Price Range | $91,800 – $93,200 | Low $90k zone under test |
| Distance from Oct 2025 ATH | –26–28% | $126,210 peak |
| 24h Spot Volume Change | +38% | Capitulation + absorption spike |
| Spot ETF Net Inflows (last 7 days) | +$1.9B | BlackRock IBIT + Fidelity dominant |
| Long-Term Holder Supply Change (30d) | –18,400 BTC | 5–12+ year wallets distributing |
| Daily Mined Supply | ~450 BTC | Post-2024 halving rate |
The 12-Year Bitcoin Whale: Who, When & How Much
This particular wallet first accumulated 5,000 BTC in 2014 when Bitcoin traded between $300–$600. After holding through multiple cycles, the entity began a very controlled distribution program in late 2024:
- Total sold since Dec 2024: ~2,800 BTC
- Latest batch (Jan 2026): 500 BTC ≈ $47.7M
- Estimated total realized: ~$265M across the program
- Selling pattern: Extremely disciplined — small, consistent tranches during periods of strength, never panic dumps
This is textbook “smart money” de-risking after a +20,000% unrealized gain.
On-Chain Evidence of Long-Term Seller Exhaustion
Despite visible whale sales, aggregate on-chain metrics suggest the broader cohort of long-term holders is largely finished distributing:
- Long-term holder supply (held >155 days) has flattened after peaking in late 2025
- Percentage of BTC supply held >5 years is now at cycle-low levels
- Realized price of long-term holders is approaching current spot price → reduced incentive to sell further
This “seller exhaustion” pattern has historically preceded major cycle advances.
Institutions Absorbing 5× Miner Supply – The Other Side of the Trade
While long-term holders distribute, professional capital continues to accumulate aggressively:
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs: +$1.9B net inflows last 7 days (BlackRock IBIT + Fidelity dominant)
- OTC desk reports: Strong bid stacks consistently in $91k–$93k region
- Institutional absorption rate: ~30,000 BTC in mid-January vs ~450 BTC daily mined supply
Result: Supply shock building beneath the surface despite visible price weakness.
Bitcoin Technical Structure – Low $90k Zone in Focus
- Current Range: $91,800 – $93,800 (expanding volatility)
- Immediate Support: $91,000 – $91,500 (November swing low)
- Strong Structural Support: $88,500 – $90,000 (200-day EMA cluster + prior base)
- Key Resistance: $95,000 (recent breakdown level) → $97,000
- Upside Target (absorption confirmed): $101,000 – $105,000
- RSI (daily): 42 (neutral → oversold conditions developing)
2026 Bitcoin Cycle Outlook – After This Reset
Bullish Case (Probability ~65%):
- Institutional demand sustains 3–5× mined supply absorption
- Long-term holder distribution exhausts
- Macro tailwinds return (Fed pivot, risk-on rotation)
- Target: $110,000–$130,000+ by mid-2026
Neutral/Grind Case (Probability ~25%):
- Sideways range $88k–$100k for 3–6 months
- Waiting for next clear macro catalyst
Bearish Case (Probability ~10%):
- ETF inflows slow dramatically
- Macro shock (recession fears) triggers broad risk-off
- Target: $80,000–$85,000 zone
How to Position During the Structural Reset on Tapbit
- Create your Tapbit account (0% maker fees)
- Deposit USDT
- Accumulate spot BTC on dips below $93k with 1–2% risk per entry
- Trade BTC/USDT perpetual futures on confirmed higher-lows
- Use up to 50–75x leverage only on very tight stops
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s current slide toward the low $90,000s is not a bear market reversal — it is a classic structural reset: disciplined long-term whales (including a prominent 12-year holder who just sold another 500 BTC) de-risking after the 2025 cycle peak, while institutions absorb supply at a rate 5× greater than daily mined coins. The $1.9B ETF inflows over the past week confirm strong professional demand at these levels. The next 4–12 weeks will likely see final capitulation followed by the start of the next major leg higher. Patience and disciplined sizing remain the keys.
Trade the reset & accumulation zone on Tapbit:
- Sign Up on Tapbit (0% maker fees)
- Login & Deposit
- Live BTC Price & Charts
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and subject to rapid change.
