Published & Updated: February 6, 2026
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index — the most widely followed gauge of cryptocurrency market sentiment — collapsed to 11 on February 6, 2026, marking its lowest reading since November 18, 2025, when Bitcoin briefly dipped below $96,000 during a similar risk-off wave.
A score of 11 places the market firmly in extreme fear territory (0–24 range), driven by elevated volatility, sharply declining trading volume, overwhelmingly bearish social-media sentiment, rising Bitcoin dominance, and heavy Google Trends searches for “Bitcoin crash” and “crypto sell-off.” This level of fear has historically been one of the strongest contrarian buy signals across Bitcoin’s 15-year history — with rebounds of 16–120% recorded within 1–6 months after similar lows in 2018, 2019, 2022, and late 2025.
Below is a detailed breakdown of what the Fear & Greed Index at 11 tells us, the key drivers behind the current panic, historical context, on-chain & derivatives signals, and realistic scenarios for whether this marks a cycle bottom or another leg lower in the 2025–2026 bear phase.
What Is the Crypto Fear & Greed Index? How It’s Calculated
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me) aggregates seven weighted data points into a single 0–100 score:
- Volatility (25%) — current vs 30/90-day averages
- Market Momentum/Volume (25%) — buying vs selling pressure
- Social Media (15%) — Twitter/X sentiment & hashtag volume
- Surveys (15%) — weekly polls of crypto community mood
- Bitcoin Dominance (10%) — BTC market-cap share rising = fear
- Google Trends (10%) — search volume for bearish terms
Readings below 25 = Extreme Fear Readings above 75 = Extreme Greed The index is deliberately contrarian: extreme fear often marks capitulation bottoms, while extreme greed frequently signals tops.
Historical Context: Extreme Fear Readings & Subsequent Performance
| Period | Lowest Fear & Greed | BTC Price at Low | Recovery Time to New High | Subsequent Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2018 | 5 | ~$3,200 | ~12 months | +3,000%+ |
| Mar 2020 (COVID crash) | 10 | ~$3,800 | ~6 months | +1,600% |
| Nov 2022 (FTX collapse) | 12 | ~$15,500 | ~18 months | +500%+ to 2025 peak |
| Nov 2025 | 11 | ~$96,000 | Ongoing | Partial recovery to $126K, then current crash |
| Feb 2026 (current) | 11 | ~$72,000 | TBD | TBD — historically strong contrarian zone |
Extreme fear readings (<20) occurred on ~15% of all days since 2018, but only ~11% in 2025 — far more frequent than the 2% seen in the 2024 bull phase. Every prior instance of a reading near 11 has been followed by a significant multi-month rally.
Why the Fear & Greed Index Dropped to 11 in February 2026
The plunge from ~43 (late January) to 11 was driven by six reinforcing factors:
- Violent price decline — Bitcoin -27% YTD, Ether -36%, total market cap -$2T since Oct 2025 peak
- Record ETF outflows — >$10–$12B cumulative redemptions since mid-2025; February alone saw >$1.5–$2B in the first week
- Liquidation cascade — >$16B in futures liquidations over 10 days, predominantly long positions
- Treasury Secretary Bessent testimony (Feb 4) — Explicit: “No authority to buy crypto with taxpayer funds or direct bank bailouts” → removed tail-risk bullish narrative
- Macro & geopolitical pressure — Fed pause, tariff threats, Middle East/Venezuela sanctions escalation → risk-off flows to gold & dollar
- Social & search sentiment collapse — bearish keyword volume (“Bitcoin crash,” “crypto winter”) at multi-month highs
Trading & Positioning Strategies on Tapbit – February 2026
- Sign Up on Tapbit (0% maker fees)
- Deposit USDT or JPY via bank transfer / P2P
- Capitulation dip buy: DCA BTC/USDT on pullbacks to $72k–$74k exhaustion zones
- Relief rally entry: Long BTC/USDT perpetuals on confirmed $76k–$78k reclaim (20–50x leverage, isolated margin)
- Risk-off hedge: Long XAU/USDT perpetuals if macro fears intensify
- Risk control: Max 1–2% account risk per trade; trailing stops below recent lows
FAQs – Fear & Greed Index at 11 (February 2026)
What does a Fear & Greed Index of 11 mean?
Extreme fear — widespread panic, capitulation selling, and historically one of the strongest contrarian buy signals in Bitcoin’s history.
Has the index been this low before?
Yes — notably Dec 2018 (5), Mar 2020 (10), Nov 2022 (12), Nov 2025 (11). Each time preceded major multi-month rallies.
Should I buy Bitcoin when Fear & Greed is 11?
Contrarian yes — extreme fear has been one of the best entry signals historically. Use staged DCA into $72k–$74k support; wait for $76k–$78k reclaim before aggressive longs.
Why are ETF investors facing losses?
Average BTC ETF acquisition cost ~$90,000; current price below $76,000 leaves most holders underwater. Cumulative outflows >$10B since mid-2025 have amplified the decline.
Conclusion & Near-Term Outlook
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index collapsing to 11 — its lowest since November 2025 — reflects genuine market panic: $2 trillion wiped out since the October 2025 peak, Bitcoin down 27% YTD, Ether 36%, >$16B in liquidations, massive ETF outflows, and Treasury Secretary Bessent’s explicit rejection of any government bailout or reserve-buying authority.
Yet extreme fear readings near 11 have historically been among the strongest contrarian buy signals in Bitcoin’s history — with rebounds of 16–120%+ recorded within 1–6 months after similar lows.
Trade Bitcoin fear-to-greed rotations on Tapbit:
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk of loss. Prices are highly volatile and can change rapidly. Sentiment indices, ETF flows, funding rates and technical patterns do not guarantee future results. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose completely.
