Hedera (HBAR) continues to trade under sustained bearish pressure in mid-January 2026, hovering around $0.109–$0.117 after failing to recapture key resistance near $0.126–$0.13. The Money Flow Index (MFI) remains decisively negative, indicating persistent capital outflows, while liquidation heatmaps show $1M–$6M clusters of long positions at risk between $0.112–$0.124. This combination creates a high-risk environment with very limited upside momentum unless volume and buyer conviction return significantly.
HBAR Price & Momentum Indicators – Current Situation
Price snapshot (as of Jan 19, 2026):
- Spot price: $0.1093
- 24h change: −6.87%
- 7d change: −8.5% to −10% (depending on exact reference)
- 30d volatility: ~13–14% (still elevated)
- Market cap: ~$4.67B
- 24h volume: ~$201M (down from recent peaks)
Key momentum indicators (TradingView / daily timeframe):
- Money Flow Index (MFI) → below 50 and trending lower → confirms ongoing selling pressure and capital outflows
- RSI (14) → ~48–52 range → neutral, no strong oversold bounce signal yet
- MACD → bearish crossover remains active, histogram bars negative → momentum still favors sellers
- Volume profile → declining on rallies → lack of buyer aggression on bounces
Liquidation Heatmap Vulnerabilities – $0.11–$0.124 Cluster at Risk
Current liquidation clusters (aggregated from major perpetual futures platforms):
| Price Level | Estimated Long Liquidation Risk | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|
| $0.114 | ~$1.0–$1.1M | First major acceleration zone if lost |
| $0.112 | ~$2.7M | Deepens selling cascade, likely tests $0.108–$0.109 |
| $0.122–$0.124 | ~$5–$6M | Large exhaustion cluster – failure here caps any rally |
| Below $0.109 | Exponential growth | Opens path toward $0.10–$0.105 psychological zone |
Interpretation: The market is currently short-biased in leveraged positions. Any breakdown below $0.114 has a high probability of triggering cascading liquidations, which would accelerate the downmove and create classic “fear spiral” conditions.
Chart Patterns & Fibonacci Support Zones
HBAR remains inside a multi-month descending channel (formed since mid-2025 highs):
- Upper channel resistance (current): $0.126–$0.13
- Lower channel support (medium-term): $0.10–$0.11 (confluence with 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracement from 2025 peak)
- Deeper structural support: $0.095–$0.100 (0.786 Fib + previous cycle base)
Current battle zone: Price is defending the lower channel boundary + 0.618 Fib around $0.108–$0.112. This is a make-or-break area:
- Bullish case: Hold + reclaim $0.122–$0.124 → targets $0.141–$0.16 (previous range highs)
- Bearish case: Clean break below $0.108 → measured move toward $0.085–$0.095
2026 HBAR Price Outlook – Realistic Scenarios
Base Case (Probability ~55–60%): Sideways-to-down grind $0.095–$0.13 for next 2–4 months. MFI stays below 50, volume remains low, occasional short squeezes but no sustained trend until regulatory or network adoption catalyst.
Bearish Case (Probability ~30%): Loss of $0.108 → liquidity cascade → test $0.085–$0.095 zone (new multi-month low). This becomes likely if broader altcoin market weakens further.
Bullish Recovery Case (Probability ~10–15%): Strong volume return + MFI crosses back above 60 + reclaim $0.126 → fast move toward $0.141–$0.16 (previous local highs). Requires fresh network usage or positive macro rotation.
How to Approach HBAR Trading on Tapbit Right Now
- Defensive spot accumulation: Consider very small buys only at $0.108–$0.112 zone with stop below $0.105 (very tight risk).
- Short bias in leveraged futures: Prefer short entries on failed rallies toward $0.122–$0.124 (high-probability rejection zone).
- Volatility play: Use Tapbit perpetual futures (up to 125×) for quick scalps around liquidation clusters — but extremely tight stops required.
- Wait-and-see mode: Most professional traders are currently on the sidelines until either $0.126 reclaim or clean break below $0.108.
Risk warning: HBAR is currently in a very low-conviction, high-risk phase. The combination of bearish MFI, clustered long liquidations, and weak retail participation makes any long position extremely dangerous without very tight risk management.
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile — past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
