Market News

Bitcoin $100K Options Alert: Deribit Jan 30 Calls See Massive Open Interest Build – Rally Signal or Trap?

Bitcoin options traders are stacking heavy bets on a push above $100,000 as 2026 kicks off, with Deribit’s January 30 expiry $100K calls drawing record open interest amid a clear shift to bullish positioning.

Data from Deribit and Amberdata shows the $100K strike now commands $1.45 billion in notional open interest—the highest across all expiries—with January alone accounting for $828 million. In the last 24 hours, OI grew by 420 BTC ($38.8 million notional), the largest single-day increase for any January call.

This concentration—more than double the nearest $80K puts—signals institutional conviction for upside, especially as perpetual funding rates climb above 30% and dealers flip short gamma, forcing hedging buys on rallies.

Current Bitcoin Options Positioning: Bulls Dominate the Board

Deribit, the dominant crypto options venue, reveals a stark bullish skew:

  • $100K Jan 30 calls: $1.45B total OI, $828M January-specific
  • Put/Call ratio: Effectively <0.5 (calls dwarf puts)
  • Recent flow: Rolls dominate, but 30 Jan 100K calls see sharp uptick (Wintermute)

“Flow remains dominated by rolls, with a notable uptick in interest around the 30 Jan 100k calls,” noted Jasper De Maere, Wintermute desk strategist.

Post-December expiry, positioning flipped: BTC perpetual funding on Deribit >30%, dealers short gamma to the upside—classic setup for amplified rallies if spot breaks higher.

Market Shift: From Downside Protection to Upside Conviction

This marks a reversal from late 2025, where puts guarded against sub-$80K dips. Now, calls lead as BTC stabilizes near $93K–$94K, with analysts eyeing:

  • Gamma squeeze potential → Dealers hedge shorts by buying spot
  • Volatility compression → Contained DVOL (~45) but upside bias
  • Institutional rotation → ETF inflows rebound, options follow

QCP Capital highlights the change: “Post-expiry positioning has shifted… signaling dealers are now short gamma to the upside.”

If BTC clears $94K convincingly, the path to $100K+ opens—potentially fueled by these leveraged bets.

Implications for Bitcoin Price: $100K by Jan 30 Realistic?

A sustained break above $94K could trigger dealer buying, pushing toward $100K ahead of expiry. Historical parallels:

  • Similar OI builds preceded 2021’s $60K+ runs
  • High funding + call dominance often resolves upward

Risks remain: Macro uncertainty or failed breakout could flip sentiment, but current skew favors bulls.

Longer-term, sustained $100K+ calls reflect 2026 optimism—potentially extending to $120K–$140K if momentum holds.

Why Traders Are Loading $100K Calls Now

  • Asymmetric payoff → Cheap OTM calls offer huge leverage
  • Institutional confidence → Rolls into January show no fear of downside
  • Technical alignment → BTC testing multi-month resistance with volume support

For “Bitcoin $100K options” searches surging 200% weekly, this OI concentration is the clearest bullish signal since Q4 2025.

Final Outlook: Bullish Bias Strong – Watch $94K Break

Bitcoin options are screaming upside into January, with $100K calls leading the charge on Deribit. A spot rally above $94K could unleash gamma-fueled momentum toward six figures—traders are positioned accordingly.

Stay vigilant: Failed breaks risk quick reversals, but data points to institutional optimism driving the next leg.

Trade BTC spot on Tapbit—zero fees, insured liquidity. Ready for the $100K push? Comment your target below!

コメントを残す

メールアドレスが公開されることはありません。 が付いている欄は必須項目です