Published: January 12, 2026 | Tapbit Market Insights
Bitcoin is currently trading around $90,000–$92,000, below the widely cited average production cost of ~$101,000 for miners (energy + hardware + overhead). Historically, this level has acted as strong support, often preceding major rebounds. On-chain analyst Willy Woo highlights that investor inflows have been steadily improving since late December 2025, while Trump’s proposed 10% credit card rate cap (set to roll out Jan 20, 2026) is expected to drive more capital toward DeFi and crypto.
Why Miner Production Costs Matter
When BTC price falls below the all-in sustaining cost for miners, several dynamics typically occur:
- Less profitable miners shut down → hashrate drops
- Remaining miners hold newly mined BTC (less immediate selling pressure)
- Historical data shows 3 major bottoms since 2017 occurred near or below production cost
Current estimated all-in cost range (Jan 2026): $98K–$105K (depending on electricity prices & efficiency).
Willy Woo On-Chain Signals: Inflows Bottomed Late Dec 2025
Key observations from Willy Woo (Jan 2026 update):
- Exchange inflows reached local bottom around Dec 24–28, 2025
- Since then: net outflows resuming → accumulation phase
- Long-term holder (LTH) supply continues to increase
- Perpetual funding rates neutral → no aggressive short squeeze yet
These metrics suggest the forced capitulation phase is largely complete.
Trump Credit Card Rate Cap & Crypto Catalyst (Jan 20, 2026)
The proposed cap is expected to:
- Reduce consumer credit card debt burden
- Free up disposable income → some portion flows to risk assets (stocks + crypto)
- Accelerate shift toward DeFi lending (lower rates than traditional credit)
Analysts estimate this could add $50–$100B in annual retail liquidity to risk markets.
Technical Outlook & Key Levels (Jan 2026)
- Major Support: $88,000 – $90,000 (miner cost floor + 200-day EMA)
- Next Resistance: $96K → $101K (previous high + psychological)
- RSI (14): 42 → neutral (room to run)
- MACD: Histogram narrowing → potential bullish crossover
Break & close above $96K would confirm reversal signal.
Conclusion & Trading Implications
Bitcoin trading below miner production costs (~$101K) has historically marked major cycle bottoms. With on-chain inflows improving (Willy Woo data) and the Trump credit card cap policy adding potential retail liquidity from Jan 20, downside risk appears limited. Traders on Tapbit can prepare for volatility with low-fee spot & futures:
→ Sign Up on Tapbit (0% spot trading fees)
→ Login & Deposit
→ Live BTC Price & Charts
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile.
