Last Updated: January 22, 2026 | Tapbit Macro & Institutional Desk
Wall Street analysts — led by Compass Point — are sounding a clear caution: do not chase Bitcoin dips below the $98,000 zone. Despite the narrative that pullbacks toward $85,000–$87,000 represent generational buying opportunities with 10× upside potential, several desks now argue that recent large-scale corporate accumulation (most notably MicroStrategy’s multi-billion-dollar buys) has failed to generate sustained momentum. Bitcoin’s inability to hold above key levels has raised questions about whether this is a healthy correction within a bull market or the beginning of a more meaningful top formation. This guide examines the analyst arguments, on-chain & technical evidence, counterpoints from bulls, and practical ways Tapbit traders can navigate the conflicting signals.
Current Bitcoin Market Snapshot – January 22, 2026
| Metric | Value / Level | Change / Status | Key Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Price | $89,425 – $90,866 (intraday) | –1.26% (24h) | Failed to reclaim $92K resistance |
| Distance to Compass Point Warning Zone | ~$8K below $98K | — | Already deep in “avoid chasing” territory |
| MicroStrategy BTC Holdings | 709,715 BTC | Latest buy: 22,305 BTC @ avg $95,284 | Stock -6.6% during purchase window |
| 24h Liquidations | $700M+ | 80%+ longs | Leverage flush mostly complete |
| Fear & Greed Index | 38–42 | Up from 24 (extreme fear) | Still low → contrarian bulls active |
| Key Support Zone | $88,000–$88,800 | — | Bulls defending; break opens $85K |
| Next Major Resistance | $92,500–$94,000 | — | Reclaim needed for bullish resumption |
Wall Street’s Core Warning – Compass Point & Others
Compass Point (and aligned voices from Wolfe Research and others) argue:
- MicroStrategy’s leveraged BTC buys have not produced the expected “flywheel” momentum
- Price action below $98K shows failed follow-through → distribution phase more likely than accumulation
- High-beta crypto stocks (MSTR, COIN, MARA) are outperforming BTC itself → classic sign of speculative froth
- Risk/reward skews negative below $98K → better entries exist at higher levels after confirmation
Counter-Argument: The $85K–$87K “Generational Buy” Thesis
Bulls (including several macro funds and on-chain analysts) push back with:
- $85K–$87K aligns with 200-week MA + prior cycle highs → historically strong support
- Leverage flush already occurred ($700M+ liquidated) → weak hands removed
- Exchange balances near multi-year lows → limited sell-side liquidity
- Institutional custody wallets still expanding (CryptoQuant data)
- Corporate treasury buying provides persistent bid
Key Technical & On-Chain Levels to Watch Right Now
Bear Case Invalidation: Clean break & close above $92,500 → $94K–$95K next
Bull Case Confirmation: Hold $88,800–$90,000 → reclaim $92K
Bear Case Acceleration: Loss of $88K → $85K–$87K retest becomes likely
Tapbit Trading Strategies Around the $98K Wall Street Warning Zone
- Create your Tapbit account (0% maker fees)
- Deposit USDT via P2P or card
- Defensive spot: Only accumulate BTC below $88K on confirmed volume & structure
- Futures hedge: Short BTC/USDT perpetuals on failure at $92,500 (isolated margin, 1–2% risk)
- Volatility play: Use Tapbit 125x leverage for quick scalps around $88K–$92K range
- Risk control: Never exceed 1% account risk per trade; isolated margin mandatory
Conclusion
Wall Street’s warning against chasing Bitcoin below $98,000 — particularly after MicroStrategy’s large buys failed to ignite sustained momentum — carries weight in the current environment. Yet the $85K–$87K zone aligns with historically significant support levels and could indeed offer a high-conviction entry if structure holds. The next 7–14 days are critical: a clean reclaim of $92,500 would invalidate bearish arguments, while a break below $88,000 opens the door to deeper testing.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile and influenced by macroeconomic, geopolitical, and regulatory developments. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose completely.
