Published: February 10, 2026
Bitcoin’s roughly 50% drawdown from late-2025 highs near $126,000 to lows around $70,000* in early February 2026 has reignited “Bitcoin to zero” calls from traditional-finance skeptics. Yet Gautam Chhugani, senior analyst at Bernstein, describes this as “the weakest bear case in Bitcoin’s history” — a self-imposed crisis of confidence rather than any fundamental breakdown.
His core argument: spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have been remarkably modest (~7% of AUM net redeemed since peak inflows), there are no hidden leverage blow-ups or systemic failures, and institutional adoption signals remain aligned for long-term growth. Chhugani maintains his $150,000 end-2026 price target, viewing the current dip as a healthy reset after euphoria. This article unpacks the bear narrative, compares ETF flows vs price action, examines supporting fundamentals, reviews technical & sentiment signals, and outlines realistic scenarios for the rest of 2026.
Why This Correction Feels Different — Bernstein’s “Weakest Bear Case” Thesis
Chhugani’s February 2026 note highlights several anomalies that make the present sell-off unusually shallow from a structural perspective:
- ETF outflows are tiny relative to price decline
Cumulative net redemptions from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs total only ~7% of peak AUM — far milder than the ~50% price drop. Previous crypto winters (2018, 2022) saw 70–90% drawdowns without spot ETFs; today’s modest outflows suggest no widespread institutional capitulation. - No hidden leverage crisis
Unlike 2022 (FTX/Alameda blow-up) or 2018 (margin-call cascades), no major centralized entity has imploded. Futures open interest has reset sharply but without contagion to spot markets or custodians. - Corporate & institutional adoption intact
MicroStrategy continues holding ~673k BTC; BlackRock, Fidelity & other ETF sponsors report steady (if slower) inflows on dips; sovereign funds and pension plans remain net buyers per 13F filings. - Self-imposed confidence crisis
The sell-off has been amplified by narrative rotation (“Bitcoin failed as dollar hedge,” “only Nasdaq beta”) rather than on-chain or custodial failures — classic fear-driven over-reaction.
Chhugani concludes: “This is the weakest bear case Bitcoin has ever faced. Fundamentals are more aligned than at any prior cycle low.”
ETF Flows vs Price Action — The Key Disconnect
One of the strongest pieces of evidence supporting the “weak bear” view is the disconnect between price and ETF flows:
| Period | BTC Price Change | Spot ETF Net Flows (% of peak AUM) | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak to Feb low (~$126K → ~$70K) | –50% | –7% net outflows | Minimal institutional selling pressure |
| Feb dip buying window | +~15% rebound | Inflows resuming (BlackRock IBIT & Fidelity leading) | Institutions treating sub-$80K as opportunity |
| Comparison: Nov 2022 bear low | –77% from ATH | N/A (pre-ETF era) | Far deeper structural damage |
Conclusion: the bulk of the correction has come from retail panic, leveraged speculators and short-term traders — not a broad exodus from institutional holders.
Current Technical & Sentiment Snapshot (Feb 10, 2026)
Current BTC Price: ~$73,500–$74,000
- Immediate Support: $72,000–$73,000 (recent low zone)
- Critical Support: $68,000–$70,000 (200-week MA + psychological level)
- Next Major Support: $62,000–$65,000 (2025 consolidation)
- Immediate Resistance: $76,000–$78,000 (prior capitulation cluster)
- Medium-Term Resistance: $81,500–$85,000 (downtrend line)
- RSI (daily): ~22–28 → extreme oversold, historically strong reversal zone
- Fear & Greed Index: 18–23 → capitulation territory
Funding rates have normalized from deeply negative levels — shorts now paying longs again on several venues — reducing downside leverage risk.
Trading & Positioning Strategies on Tapbit – February 2026
- Sign Up on Tapbit (0% maker fees)
- Deposit USDT via bank transfer / P2P
- Capitulation accumulation: DCA BTC/USDT on pullbacks to $68,500–$70,000 exhaustion zones
- Relief rally entry: Long BTC/USDT perpetuals on confirmed $76k–$78k reclaim (20–50x leverage, isolated margin)
- Risk-off hedge: Long XAU/USDT perpetuals if macro fears intensify
- Risk control: Max 1–2% account risk per trade; trailing stops below recent lows
FAQs – Bitcoin Correction & Bernstein $150K View (February 2026)
Why does Bernstein call this the weakest bear case ever?
Only ~7% net ETF outflows despite 50% price drop — no structural failures, no major blow-ups, institutional adoption signals remain intact. Previous bears (2018, 2022) saw far deeper damage.
Is Bitcoin still correlated with Nasdaq?
Yes — 30-day rolling correlation recently hit 0.80 (three-year high). BTC behaves like high-beta growth asset during risk-off periods, explaining short-term underperformance vs gold.
Should I buy Bitcoin during extreme fear?
Contrarian yes — readings near 18–23 have historically been among the strongest buy signals. Use staged DCA into $68.5k–$70k support; wait for $76k–$78k reclaim before aggressive longs.
What could push Bitcoin to $150K by end-2026?
ETF inflow resumption, macro pivot (Fed cuts), continued corporate treasury adoption, halving-cycle supply dynamics, and reduced leverage overhang after current flush.
Conclusion & 2026 Outlook
Bitcoin’s ~50% correction from $126K highs to ~$70K lows has been painful — but Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani argues it is structurally the “weakest bear case” Bitcoin has ever faced: only modest ETF outflows (~7%), no systemic failures, and institutional adoption signals still aligned for long-term growth. Extreme fear readings (Fear & Greed ~18–23), oversold technicals, and normalized funding rates suggest the worst of the leverage flush may be behind us.
Tapbit provides traders with clean execution during fear-to-greed rotations: 0% maker fees on BTC/USDT spot & perpetuals, deep liquidity, up to 125x leverage (use conservatively), staking/yield options, and instant fiat ramps. Key levels to monitor: $68.5k–$70k support hold, ETF flow stabilization, February jobs report (Feb 7), CPI release (Feb 10–14), and Fed speaker commentary — capitulation extremes have historically preceded the strongest multi-month rallies of every Bitcoin cycle.
Trade Bitcoin rebounds & volatility on Tapbit:
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk of loss. Prices are highly volatile and can change rapidly. Analyst price targets, ETF flow data and sentiment indices are opinions and not guarantees. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose completely.
