Published: February 9, 2026
Bitcoin has once again come under intense bearish scrutiny from traditional finance analysts. In a widely circulated February 2026 research note, Pivotus Partners’ Richard Farr assigned BTC a $0 price target, arguing it has “failed as a dollar hedge” and behaves primarily as a high-beta Nasdaq proxy rather than a distinct asset class. The note gained traction amid a Crypto Fear & Greed Index reading at six-week lows (currently hovering ~18–23 in extreme fear territory) and Bitcoin trading near $73,000 after a steep multi-week correction from late-2025 highs above $126,000.
Farr’s thesis echoes earlier warnings from Michael Burry, who described Bitcoin’s corporate adoption (notably MicroStrategy) as a potential “death spiral” in which falling prices force leveraged holders into cascading sell-offs. This article examines the core bear arguments, supporting data (Nasdaq correlation, ETF flows, sentiment indicators), counterpoints from the pro-Bitcoin camp, historical parallels, and realistic scenarios for BTC in the remainder of 2026.
The Bear Narrative – Pivotus Partners & Michael Burry
Richard Farr’s $0 target rests on several interlocking claims:
- No intrinsic utility: Unlike gold (industrial use) or the dollar (legal tender), Bitcoin produces nothing and consumes massive energy via mining.
- Speculative Nasdaq proxy: 30-day rolling correlation between BTC and NDX recently reached 0.80 — a three-year high — meaning Bitcoin moves almost in lockstep with growth stocks during risk-on/risk-off cycles.
- Institutional adoption risks: Heavy concentration among a few leveraged players (e.g. MicroStrategy with ~673k BTC) creates systemic fragility — a sustained BTC decline below average cost basis (~$75–76k) could trigger forced sales and bankruptcies.
- Environmental & scalability barriers: Proof-of-Work mining is “wasteful”; Lightning Network and sidechains have failed to achieve meaningful adoption for everyday payments.
Michael Burry has taken a similar tone, warning in late 2025 of a “death spiral” where falling BTC prices erode confidence in corporate treasuries, forcing more sales and further price pressure — a feedback loop he believes ends at zero for speculative assets lacking cash flow.
Supporting Market Signals – Correlation, Fear Index & ETF Flows
Several quantitative indicators have fueled the bear case in early 2026:
- Nasdaq–Bitcoin Correlation: 30-day rolling correlation hit 0.80 (three-year high) during the February sell-off — BTC now moves more like a leveraged tech stock than “digital gold”.
- Crypto Fear & Greed Index: Dropped to 18–23 (extreme fear) — lowest since mid-November 2025 — reflecting capitulation sentiment, rising Bitcoin dominance (~59–60%), and bearish social-media volume.
- Spot ETF Outflows: Cumulative net redemptions from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs exceeded $10–12 billion since mid-2025; February 2026 outflows alone topped $1.5–2 billion in the first week.
- Volatility Spike: 30-day historical volatility reached 40.72% — highest since early 2025 — making BTC extremely sensitive to macro shifts (Fed balance sheet, real yields, tariff threats).
- Retail Adoption Slowdown: U.S. retail ownership reportedly fell to ~12% (down from 2024 peaks), while institutional flows remain the dominant driver — but even institutions have slowed accumulation during the correction.
Counterarguments – Why Bitcoin May Not Go to Zero
Bitcoin maximalists and many institutional analysts push back strongly against the $0 thesis:
- Network resilience: Bitcoin has survived multiple 80–90% drawdowns (2011, 2013, 2017, 2018, 2022) and emerged stronger each time due to halving cycles, increasing hash rate, and growing node count.
- Institutional infrastructure intact: Spot ETFs, corporate treasuries (MicroStrategy, Tesla, Block), and custody solutions (Coinbase, Fidelity) remain operational — no systemic failure has occurred.
- Correlation is cyclical: High Nasdaq correlation often appears during risk-off periods; BTC has decoupled during previous macro pivots (e.g. 2020–2021 QE era).
- Supply dynamics: ~19.8 million BTC already mined; annual issuance now <0.9% → scarcity narrative strengthens over time.
- Historical rebounds after extreme fear: Readings near 11–20 have preceded rallies of 16–120%+ within 1–6 months (2018, 2020, 2022, late 2025).
Key Technical Levels & Sentiment Snapshot (Feb 9, 2026)
Current BTC Price: ~$73,500 (partial recovery from $60K test)
- Immediate Support: $72,000–$73,000 (recent low zone)
- Critical Support: $68,000–$70,000 (200-week MA + psychological)
- Next Major Support: $62,000–$65,000 (2025 consolidation)
- Immediate Resistance: $76,000–$78,000 (prior breakdown cluster)
- Medium-Term Resistance: $81,500–$85,000 (downtrend line)
- RSI (daily): ~22–28 → extreme oversold, historically strong reversal zone
- Fear & Greed Index: 18–23 → capitulation territory
Trading Strategies on Tapbit – February 2026
- Sign Up on Tapbit (0% maker fees)
- Deposit USDT via bank transfer / P2P
- Capitulation accumulation: DCA BTC/USDT on pullbacks to $68,500–$70,000 exhaustion zones
- Relief rally entry: Long BTC/USDT perpetuals on confirmed $76k–$78k reclaim (20–50x leverage, isolated margin)
- Risk-off hedge: Long XAU/USDT perpetuals if macro fears intensify
- Risk control: Max 1–2% account risk per trade; trailing stops below recent lows
FAQs – Bitcoin Bear Case & Fear Index Low (February 2026)
Why does Pivotus Partners set Bitcoin price target at $0?
Farr argues BTC has no intrinsic utility, acts as a speculative Nasdaq proxy (0.80 correlation), wastes energy on mining, and faces adoption barriers — predicting eventual collapse to zero.
Is Bitcoin still correlated with Nasdaq in 2026?
Yes — 30-day rolling correlation recently hit 0.80 (three-year high), meaning BTC moves almost in lockstep with growth stocks during risk-on/risk-off cycles.
What does Fear & Greed Index at 11–23 mean?
Extreme fear — widespread panic and capitulation. Historically one of the strongest contrarian buy signals; similar readings preceded major rallies in 2018, 2020, 2022, and late 2025.
Should I buy Bitcoin during extreme fear?
Contrarian yes — extreme fear (<25) has been one of the best entry signals historically. Use staged DCA into $68.5k–$70k support; wait for $76k–$78k reclaim before aggressive longs.
Conclusion & 2026 Outlook
The “Bitcoin to zero” thesis from Pivotus Partners and echoes from Michael Burry highlight real risks: extreme Nasdaq correlation (0.80), failed dollar-hedge narrative, leveraged corporate concentration (MicroStrategy), and persistent ETF outflows. Yet the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at **11–23** (lowest since Nov 2025) also signals classic capitulation — a condition that has preceded the strongest multi-month rallies in every prior cycle.
Tapbit provides traders with clean execution during fear-to-greed rotations: 0% maker fees on BTC/USDT spot & perpetuals, deep liquidity, up to 125x leverage (used sparingly), staking/yield options, and instant fiat ramps. Key levels to monitor: $68.5k–$70k support hold, ETF flow stabilization, February jobs report (Feb 7), CPI release (Feb 10–14), and Fed speaker commentary — extreme fear extremes have historically offered the best asymmetric entries of the Bitcoin cycle.
Trade Bitcoin fear-to-greed rotations on Tapbit:
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk of loss. Prices are highly volatile and can change rapidly. Analyst price targets, sentiment indices and correlation data are opinions and not guarantees. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose completely.
