Last Updated: January 23, 2026 | Tapbit Precious Metals & Macro Desk
Gold futures exploded to a fresh all-time high of $4,923 per ounce this week (January 22–23, 2026), surpassing the previous record near $4,887 amid a weakening US Dollar Index (DXY ~98.46, down 0.93%), escalating geopolitical tensions, and growing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Goldman Sachs promptly raised its December 2026 price target from $4,900 to $5,400 (bull case $5,800), citing relentless central-bank purchases (~60 tonnes/month), private investor diversification from dollar assets, and persistent macro uncertainty. For crypto traders on Tapbit, this gold breakout highlights a clear safe-haven rotation away from high-beta digital assets — creating hedging opportunities and portfolio rebalancing signals. This guide analyzes the rally drivers, technical structure, gold-crypto divergence, and precise Tapbit strategies to navigate the trend.
Gold Rally Snapshot & Goldman Sachs Forecast Upgrade
| Metric | Current (Jan 23) | Previous Record | Goldman Sachs Target | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Spot Price | $4,923 (ATH) | $4,887 | $5,400 (Dec 2026) | Geopolitical + dollar weakness |
| 24h / Weekly Change | +2.1% / +3.8% | — | Bull case: $5,800 | Central-bank buying acceleration |
| DXY (USD Index) | 98.46 | — | — | -0.93% (supports gold) |
| Central Bank Monthly Buying | ~60 tonnes | — | — | EM banks leading (China, India) |
| BTC/Gold Ratio | ~18.5 oz | ~40 oz (end-2024) | — | 2-year low (gold outperforming) |
Main Drivers Behind Gold’s Record Surge to $4,923
The rally reflects a perfect storm of macro and structural forces:
- US Dollar weakness: DXY at 98.46 (-0.93%) → non-USD buyers (China, India, Middle East) aggressively accumulating
- Geopolitical escalation: Middle East conflicts, U.S.-EU tariff tensions (even post-de-escalation), Ukraine developments
- Fed rate-cut bets: Market pricing ~75 bps cuts in 2026 → suppressed real yields favor non-yielding gold
- Central-bank diversification: ~60 tonnes/month purchases (highest sustained pace since 1970s)
- Private investor flows: ETF inflows + direct physical buying amid sovereign-debt concerns
Gold vs Bitcoin Safe-Haven Divergence – 2026 Signals
The BTC/Gold ratio collapsing to ~**18.5 ounces** (lowest since Q4 2023) reveals stark differences:
- Gold: Proven crisis asset with 5,000+ years of history
- Bitcoin: High-beta risk proxy (correlates more with Nasdaq than gold)
- 90-day correlation: ~0.18 (near multi-year low)
- Implication: Institutions treating gold as “true” safe-haven during macro fear
Historical pattern: Ratio compression often precedes BTC mean-reversion rallies once risk appetite returns.
Technical Outlook for Gold After $4,923 Breakout
- Current Range: $4,880–$4,940 (post-ATH consolidation)
- Immediate Support: $4,800–$4,850 (prior swing highs)
- Strong Support: $4,650–$4,700 (50-day EMA cluster)
- Next Resistance: $5,000 (psychological round number)
- RSI (daily): ~78–82 (overbought but strong momentum)
Tapbit Trading Strategies for Gold Rally & BTC Divergence
- Create your Tapbit account (0% maker fees)
- Deposit USDT via P2P or card
- Gold momentum: Long XAU/USDT perpetuals on pullbacks to $4,800 (20–50x leverage, isolated margin)
- BTC mean-reversion: Long BTC/USDT if ratio stabilizes + BTC reclaims $92K
- Portfolio hedge: 30–40% XAU longs vs 60–70% BTC during macro uncertainty
- Risk control: Max 1–2% account risk per trade; trailing stops mandatory
Conclusion
Gold’s explosive rally to a record $4,923 per ounce — with Goldman Sachs now forecasting $5,400 by December 2026 — underscores a powerful safe-haven rotation driven by dollar weakness (DXY 98.46), central-bank buying (~60 tonnes/month), geopolitical tensions, and suppressed real yields. The BTC/Gold ratio hitting a two-year low below 18 highlights Bitcoin’s continued high-beta risk-proxy status rather than “digital gold” dominance during crises. For Tapbit traders, this divergence creates clear opportunities: gold for macro hedging, BTC for eventual mean-reversion plays.
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