Published: January 22, 2026 | Updated: January 22, 2026 | Tapbit Macro & Safe-Haven Desk
Gold futures touched an all-time high of $4,887 per ounce this week before pulling back slightly, prompting Goldman Sachs to upgrade its 12-month price target from $4,700 to $5,400 (with a bull-case scenario reaching $5,800). The bank cites sustained central-bank purchases, accelerating de-dollarization flows, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty as the main drivers. For crypto participants this move is noteworthy: while Bitcoin and Ethereum remain range-bound near recent lows, gold’s breakout highlights a clear divergence in safe-haven behavior — one that savvy traders can exploit on platforms like Tapbit. This article breaks down Goldman’s rationale, the macro forces at play, gold-crypto correlation trends, and practical positioning ideas using Tapbit spot & perpetual futures.
Goldman Sachs Gold Forecast Upgrade – Key Points at a Glance
| Metric | Previous Target | New Target (Jan 2026) | Bull-Case Scenario | Main Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-month Gold Price | $4,700 | $5,400 | $5,800 | Central-bank buying + de-dollarization acceleration |
| Current Spot (intraday high) | — | $4,887 | — | New all-time high set this week |
| Expected Annual Demand | — | ↑ 10–15% YoY | — | EM central banks & private investors |
| Gold vs BTC Correlation (90-day) | — | ~0.18 (near multi-year low) | — | Diverging safe-haven paths |
Why Goldman Raised the Target – Macro Drivers
Goldman’s upgrade rests on three interlocking themes:
- Central-bank buying remains relentless
EM central banks (China, India, Turkey, Poland, etc.) added ~1,037 tonnes in 2025 — the second-highest annual total on record. Early 2026 data shows no slowdown. - De-dollarization accelerates
BRICS discussions, bilateral trade in local currencies, and reduced U.S. Treasury holdings by key players continue to erode dollar dominance → gold benefits disproportionately. - Geopolitical & policy uncertainty stays elevated
Ongoing Middle East tensions, U.S.-EU trade friction (even after recent de-escalation), and uncertainty around Fed path keep real yields suppressed → classic gold tailwind.
Gold vs Crypto Safe-Haven Divergence – What the Data Shows
- 90-day rolling correlation between gold and BTC → ~0.18 (lowest since mid-2023)
- Gold up ~38% YTD 2026 while BTC remains range-bound below recent highs
- During the latest tariff scare (Jan 19–20), gold gained +1.4–2.1% while BTC dropped -3.6%
- Interpretation: institutional capital increasingly treats gold as the “true” non-dollar reserve asset; crypto remains a high-beta risk proxy
Implications for Crypto Traders & Positioning on Tapbit
- Gold as macro hedge: When USD weakens and real yields fall, gold outperforms → crypto can lag or even sell off (risk-on unwind). Use Tapbit XAU/USDT perpetuals (up to 125x) to hedge BTC/ETH longs during fear spikes.
- Watch for rotation back into risk assets: If tariff fears fully dissipate and central-bank buying slows, capital may flow from gold → equities & crypto. Early sign = gold stalling + BTC reclaiming $92K–$94K.
- Tapbit execution ideas:
- Long XAU/USDT on pullbacks to $4,680–$4,700 (isolated margin, 20–50x)
- Short BTC/USDT if gold keeps making new highs while BTC fails $91K (hedge)
- Spot accumulation BTC/ETH on macro-driven dips (0% maker fees)
- Risk control: Max 1–2% account risk per trade; isolated margin mandatory
Conclusion
Goldman Sachs’ upgrade to a $5,400 12-month gold target (bull case $5,800) after the metal printed a new record at $4,887 underscores a powerful macro rotation: central-bank diversification, de-dollarization flows, and geopolitical uncertainty continue to favor hard assets over fiat-linked risk proxies. The low correlation between gold and Bitcoin right now is a warning sign for crypto traders — BTC remains a high-beta asset sensitive to equity flows and leverage cycles.
Trade gold momentum, BTC dips & macro rotation on Tapbit:
- Sign Up on Tapbit (0% spot trading fees)
- Login & Deposit
- Live XAU/USDT, BTC/USDT & ETH/USDT
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or financial advice. Precious metals and cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and subject to macroeconomic & geopolitical events. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose completely.
