Published: February 4, 2026
Bernstein Research dramatically raised its price target on SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) to $1,000 from $650 on February 3, 2026, calling the post-spin-off NAND flash pure-play the “clearest and highest-conviction beneficiary” of the AI storage supercycle. The upgrade comes after SanDisk delivered blockbuster Q2 fiscal 2026 results (ended December 2025) and issued exceptionally strong Q3 guidance, with NAND contract prices already up 55–60% quarter-to-date in Q1 calendar 2026 according to TrendForce and industry sources.
Trading at ~3.2× forward price-to-sales — significantly below Micron’s ~5–6× and SK hynix’s premium multiples — Bernstein sees SanDisk as deeply undervalued given its margin expansion trajectory (51.1% non-GAAP gross margin in Q2), zero exposure to high-capex HBM DRAM competition, and multi-year pricing agreements with hyperscalers. This article breaks down the earnings drivers, competitive positioning, technical setup, risks, and trading considerations for SNDK in the current NAND rebound phase.
Q2 Fiscal 2026 Earnings Highlights (Reported Jan/Feb 2026)
| Metric | Q2 FY2026 Actual | Consensus Estimate | YoY Change | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.03 billion | $2.67 billion | +61% | Beat +13.5% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $6.20 | $3.49 | From loss to +404% | Massive beat |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 51.1% | ~42% | +~18.6 pts | Significant expansion |
| Data Center SSD Revenue | $440 million | N/A | +76% YoY | Fastest-growing segment |
| Q3 Revenue Guidance (midpoint) | $4.4–4.8 billion | $3.8–4.0 billion | — | Well above consensus |
| Q3 Gross Margin Guidance | 65–67% | ~55% | — | Exceptional outlook |
Source: SanDisk earnings release, Bernstein Research, consensus aggregates (February 2026)
Why Bernstein Sees $1,000 – The NAND Supercycle Thesis
Bernstein’s upgrade is built on four interlocking drivers:
- AI storage demand explosion
Hyperscalers are deploying massive GPU clusters (NVIDIA Blackwell, AMD MI300X, custom TPUs) that require 4–10× more high-capacity NAND SSDs per rack than traditional servers. SanDisk is sold out on enterprise-grade TLC/QLC drives into 2027. - NAND contract prices surging
TrendForce and industry checks show Q1 2026 enterprise NAND prices up **55–60%** QoQ — the fastest quarterly increase since 2017 — driven by undersupply and AI urgency. Consumer NAND also rising 20–35%. - Pure-play margin leverage
Unlike Micron (competing in HBM DRAM) or Samsung (heavy consumer mix), SanDisk is a nearly pure NAND flash company post-Western Digital spin-off → highest operating leverage to price recovery. Q3 margin guide of **65–67%** implies massive earnings power. - Undervalued valuation
At ~3.2× forward P/S vs Micron ~5–6× and SK hynix premium multiples, Bernstein sees room for multiple expansion as earnings ramp toward **$38.92** FY2026 EPS consensus (implying ~$1,000+ target at 25–30× forward P/E).
SanDisk vs Peers – Competitive Positioning
| Company | NAND Market Share (2026 est.) | FY2026 EPS Est. | Forward P/S | Key Differentiator / Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SanDisk (SNDK) | ~22–25% | $38.92 | ~3.2× | Pure NAND play, highest price leverage, no HBM capex distraction |
| Micron (MU) | ~23–26% | $8.20–$8.50 | ~5–6× | HBM leader but heavy capex, mixed DRAM/NAND exposure |
| SK hynix | ~28–32% | ~$18–$20 USD equiv. | Premium | HBM market share leader, strong pricing power |
| Kioxia / Western Digital | ~18–22% | Variable | Lower | Post-spin weaker scale, higher cost structure |
Technical Setup & Sentiment – Early February 2026
Current Price Range: ~$410–$440 (consolidation after January surge)
- Support: $400 (50-day MA), $380–$390 (prior breakout)
- Resistance: $450–$455 (recent high), $480–$500 (measured move target)
- RSI (daily): ~65 (neutral-bullish, not overbought)
- MACD: Bullish crossover intact
- Volume: >30M shares/day average — strong liquidity
Pattern: Bull flag consolidation after vertical move → breakout above $440–$450 targets $480–$500+.
Risks to Monitor in 2026
- Cyclical downturn: Memory is notoriously cyclical; oversupply can return quickly if AI capex slows
- US–China trade tensions: SanDisk’s Taiwan fabs and China exposure create geopolitical risk
- Customer concentration: Heavy reliance on NVIDIA and hyperscalers → any slowdown in AI spending hits hard
- Competition: SK hynix retains HBM lead; Samsung’s scale remains formidable
FAQs – SanDisk (SNDK) 2026 Outlook
Why did Bernstein raise SanDisk to $1,000?
AI-driven NAND demand, 55–60% Q1 2026 contract price hikes, pure-play leverage to price recovery (no HBM capex distraction), and undervalued 3.2× forward P/S multiple vs peers.
How does SanDisk compare to Micron?
SanDisk is a purer NAND play with higher margin upside from pricing; Micron leads in HBM but faces heavier capex and mixed DRAM exposure. SanDisk trades at a significant valuation discount.
What is the biggest risk for SanDisk in 2026?
AI capex slowdown from hyperscalers, renewed NAND oversupply, or US–China trade escalation impacting Taiwan fabs/supply chain.
Conclusion & 2026 Outlook for SanDisk
SanDisk (SNDK) is firmly positioned as one of the clearest AI infrastructure winners in 2026. With NAND contract prices surging 55–60% in Q1, data-center SSD revenue exploding, gross margins expanding to 65–67% guided for Q3, and forward EPS estimates around $38–$39, the fundamental story is exceptionally strong. Bernstein’s $1,000 target implies significant upside from current levels (~3.2× forward P/S vs Micron’s premium multiples).
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Disclaimer: Stock and cryptocurrency trading involve significant risk of loss. Prices are highly volatile and can change rapidly. Earnings guidance and analyst targets are estimates and not guaranteed. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose completely.
