Published & Updated: February 12, 2026
Bitcoin trades near $67,648 (Feb 12, 2026) after briefly printing a low of $66,664 during Asian hours — a zone Fundstrat Global Advisors CIO Tom Lee views as an attractive long-term accumulation area rather than a level to precisely time for the cycle bottom.
In his latest note and CNBC appearance, Lee reiterated his long-standing view: “The pain trade is ending — weak hands are out, leverage has been flushed, and fundamentals scream buy.” He pointed to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping to 8 (Extreme Fear) — a level that has historically preceded strong recoveries — while dismissing attempts to call the exact low as “fool’s gold.” Instead, he advocates systematic buying during fear when price is below long-term trend lines and miner breakeven costs.
This guide unpacks Tom Lee’s current thesis in detail: why he sees the $66K–$68K zone as a high-conviction entry block, how the $470M 24-hour long liquidation spike fits the capitulation pattern, the impact of hotter-than-expected US jobs data (130K vs 55K expected), on-chain bullish divergence signals, the path to $100K+, and actionable trading frameworks for Tapbit users.
1. Fear & Greed at 8 – Historical Context & Buy Signal
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index (Alternative.me) fell to 8 on February 11–12, 2026 — firmly in Extreme Fear territory and the lowest reading since the late-January $60K test.
Historical performance after Extreme Fear (index ≤ 10):
- 30-day forward return: +28% average (2018–2025 data)
- 90-day forward return: +62% average
- Notable precedents:
- Nov 2022 (index 8–10): BTC +460% in 12 months
- Jun 2022 (index 6–9): BTC +220% in 9 months
- Mar 2020 (index 5–10): BTC +650% in 12 months
Lee’s core argument: capitulation at these levels removes weak hands and leverage, leaving a lighter, more resilient market structure for the next leg higher.
2. $470M Liquidations – The Flush Is Over
Coinglass data shows $180 million in long liquidations on February 11–12 alone — part of a $470 million 24-hour spike concentrated in the $67,000–$68,000 zone. This represents the largest single-day liquidation event since the $60K capitulation cluster in late January.
Key observations:
- Longs accounted for >85% of the liquidations → classic over-leveraged bulls getting flushed
- Funding rates flipped deeply negative (longs paying shorts at –0.05% to –0.09%) → accelerating the flush
- Post-flush reset: funding rates normalizing toward zero → reduced downside leverage pressure
Lee interprets this as healthy cleansing: “The market needed to get rid of weak hands before the next sustained move higher.”
3. Hot Jobs Data & Macro Rotation Pressure
The stronger-than-expected January US jobs report (130K added vs 55K consensus forecast) released February 7 pushed 10-year Treasury yields back above 4.3% and strengthened the dollar — classic risk-off drivers for high-beta assets like crypto.
Impact on BTC:
- Delayed Fed rate-cut expectations → higher real yields → pressure on growth assets
- Equity rotation into “cheaper” AI/tech names → crypto underperforms during risk-off phases
- Gold rotation peak → BTC/gold ratio compressing (BTC underperforming safe-haven flows)
Lee remains unconcerned: “Macro noise is temporary. Fundamentals — halving cycle, institutional adoption, supply shock — are what matter over 6–12 months.”
4. Technical Outlook & Key Levels After the $67K Breach
Current BTC Price: ~$67,100–$67,400
- Next major support: $64,000–$65,000 (50-day EMA cluster + prior range high)
- Deeper support: $60,000–$62,000 (capitulation zone that held in late Jan / early Feb)
- Strong long-term support: $58,000–$60,000 (200-week moving average)
- Immediate resistance: $68,000–$68,500 (prior breakdown level), $70,000–$72,000 (psychological + prior rejection)
- RSI (daily): ~35–38 → deeply oversold but showing early bullish divergence on 4H
Lee’s tactical view: accumulate aggressively below $68K, especially near $64K–$65K if reached — “the pain trade ends here.”
5. Tapbit Trading Strategies – February 2026
- Sign Up on Tapbit (0% maker fees)
- Deposit USDT or JPY via P2P / bank transfer
- Dip accumulation: Dollar-cost-average BTC/USDT spot on pullbacks to $64,000–$67,000 zone
- Reversal confirmation: Long BTC/USDT perpetuals on reclaim of $68,500–$69,000 (20–50x leverage, isolated margin)
- Risk-off hedge: Long XAU/USDT perpetuals or park in USDT Earn during continued macro fear
- Risk control: Max 1–2% account risk per trade; trailing stops below recent swing lows
FAQs – Tom Lee Bitcoin Dip Strategy & $67K Breakdown (Feb 2026)
Why does Tom Lee say to buy the dip instead of timing the exact bottom?
Lee argues that perfectly calling the low is nearly impossible and often leads to missed opportunities. He prefers systematic accumulation when fear is extreme and price is below long-term trend lines and miner breakeven costs.
Is Extreme Fear (index 8) a reliable buy signal?
Historically yes — readings ≤10 have preceded strong recoveries (+28% 30-day avg, +62% 90-day avg across 2018–2025). Lee calls it “the best time to buy” as weak hands are flushed out.
What macro data could push BTC lower this week?
U.S. CPI & PPI releases (Feb 11–13), Fed speakers, continued ETF outflows, or renewed dollar strength. Hotter inflation reinforces “higher-for-longer” pressure.
Should I buy Bitcoin at current levels (~$67K)?
$64,000–$65,000 offers better risk/reward for staged DCA entries. Wait for $68,500–$69,000 reclaim + higher volume before aggressive longs. Below $64K risks retest of $60K.
Conclusion & Realistic 2026 Outlook
Tom Lee’s call to “buy the dip” near $67K amid Extreme Fear (index 8) is rooted in historical capitulation patterns, miner cost stabilization (~$77K breakeven), leverage flush ($470M liquidations), and long-term fundamentals (halving cycle, institutional adoption, supply shock). While macro noise (jobs data, dollar strength, ETF outflows) keeps near-term pressure alive, the modest institutional selling and aggressive whale accumulation suggest this remains a corrective pullback within a broader bull cycle.
Trade Bitcoin dip momentum on Tapbit:
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk of loss. Prices are highly volatile and can change rapidly. Analyst forecasts, on-chain signals and macro catalysts do not guarantee future results. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose completely.
