Published & Updated: February 6, 2026 | Tapbit Market Cycles & Macro Risk Desk
Since the October 2025 cycle peak near $126,000, Bitcoin has declined approximately 27% year-to-date, trading in the $72,000–$76,000 range in early February 2026. The broader cryptocurrency market has shed roughly $2 trillion in capitalization over the same period — one of the largest absolute drawdowns in crypto history outside of the 2022 bear market.
Ethereum has fared even worse, down 36% YTD and recently testing lows near $1,850. The crash has been driven by persistent spot ETF outflows (cumulative >$10B across BTC/ETH products since mid-2025), macro liquidity tightening, geopolitical uncertainty, leveraged position unwinds, and a sharp rotation out of high-beta risk assets. This article provides a complete breakdown of the causes, timeline, on-chain & derivatives signals, technical structure, sentiment extremes and realistic recovery scenarios for the 2025–2026 crypto bear phase.
Timeline: From $126K Peak to $2 Trillion Wipeout
| Period | BTC Price Range | Market Cap Change | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct–Dec 2025 | $126K → $100K–$110K | Peak → early correction | Post-election euphoria fade, profit-taking |
| Jan 2026 | $110K → $85K | –$800B+ total crypto | ETF outflows accelerate, Fed hawkish tilt |
| Feb 1–6, 2026 | $85K → $72K low | –$600–$700B weekly | Bessent testimony, $16B+ liquidations, tech sell-off spillover |
| YTD Total (Jan–Feb 6) | –27% BTC / –36% ETH | –$2T overall | Macro + institutional + leverage unwind |
Primary Causes of the $2 Trillion Crypto Rout
- Persistent Spot ETF Outflows
Cumulative net redemptions from U.S. Bitcoin & Ethereum spot ETFs have exceeded $10–$12 billion since mid-2025. February 2026 alone saw >$1.5–$2B outflows in the first week — removing the consistent spot bid that had previously stabilized price during corrections. - Macro Liquidity Squeeze & Fed Policy
The Federal Reserve’s continued “higher-for-longer” stance (no early cuts from 3.50–3.75%) has kept real yields elevated. Renewed tariff threats (autos, semiconductors, copper) and geopolitical noise further suppressed risk appetite. - Leverage Flush & Liquidation Cascade
Cumulative futures liquidations topped $16 billion in the ten-day window ending February 5 (Coinglass). Long positions dominated (~80–85%), reflecting late-2025 euphoria being washed out. Funding rates turned deeply negative (longs paying shorts at –0.03% to –0.08%). - Treasury Secretary Bessent’s Testimony (Feb 4)
Explicit rejection of bailout authority or government BTC purchases during House hearing removed a tail-risk bullish narrative → triggered tactical selling and risk-off rotation. - Technical Breakdown & Altcoin Underperformance
BTC lost $84k–$85k support → algorithmic stop cascades. ETH/BTC ratio hit fresh cycle lows; most altcoins bled 40–60% from December highs.
Technical Structure & Sentiment Extremes (Feb 6, 2026)
Current BTC Price (late session): ~$73,500
- Immediate Support: $72,000–$73,000 (intraday low zone)
- Critical Support: $68,000–$70,000 (200-week MA + psychological level)
- Next Major Support: $62,000–$65,000 (2025 consolidation zone)
- Immediate Resistance: $76,000–$78,000 (prior capitulation cluster)
- Medium-Term Resistance: $85,000–$88,000 (downtrend line)
- RSI (daily): ~22–28 → extreme oversold, historically strong reversal zone
- Fear & Greed Index: 14–23 → capitulation territory
Trading Strategies on Tapbit – February 2026
- Sign Up on Tapbit (0% maker fees)
- Deposit USDT via bank transfer / P2P
- Capitulation accumulation: DCA BTC/USDT on pullbacks to $72k–$74k exhaustion zones
- Relief rally entry: Long BTC/USDT perpetuals on confirmed $76k–$78k reclaim (20–50x leverage, isolated margin)
- Risk-off hedge: Long XAU/USDT perpetuals if macro fears intensify
- Risk control: Max 1–2% account risk per trade; trailing stops below recent lows
FAQs – Bitcoin & Crypto Crash February 2026
What caused Bitcoin to crash 27% YTD?
Persistent ETF outflows (> $10B since mid-2025), macro caution (Fed pause, tariffs), Bessent’s no-bailout testimony, $16B+ liquidations, and technical breakdown below $84k–$85k support.
Is $72,000 the bottom for Bitcoin?
Possible local floor if support holds and ETF flows stabilize. Break below opens risk toward $68k–$70k (200-week MA). Sustained hold + volume would signal relief rally potential.
Should I buy Bitcoin after the crash?
$72k–$74k offers favorable risk/reward for staged DCA entries if conviction is high. Wait for $76k–$78k reclaim + higher volume before aggressive longs. Below $72k risks deeper test toward $62k–$65k.
Will crypto recover from the $2T wipeout?
Historically yes — capitulation extremes (Fear & Greed <25, RSI <30) have preceded the strongest multi-month rallies of every cycle. Watch ETF inflows, Fed pivot signals, and macro stabilization.
Conclusion & Near-Term Outlook
The $2 trillion crypto market wipeout since October 2025 — with Bitcoin down 27% YTD and Ether 36% — reflects a classic risk-off deleveraging cycle amplified by persistent ETF outflows, macro tightening, leverage flush, and Treasury Secretary Bessent’s explicit rejection of government support during February 4 testimony. While short-term pressure remains intense, the current setup (extreme oversold technicals, capitulation sentiment, declining exchange balances) closely resembles previous bear-market bottoms that preceded powerful recoveries.
Tapbit offers traders clean execution during fear phases: 0% maker fees on BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT & major pairs, deep liquidity, up to 125x leverage (use conservatively), staking/yield options, and instant fiat ramps. Key levels to monitor: $72k–$74k BTC support hold, ETF flow stabilization, February jobs report (Feb 7), CPI release (Feb 10–14), and Fed speaker commentary — capitulation extremes have historically offered the best asymmetric entries of every Bitcoin cycle.
Trade Bitcoin & crypto volatility on Tapbit:
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk of loss. Prices are highly volatile and can change rapidly. ETF flows, funding rates and technical patterns do not guarantee future results. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose completely.
