Updated: February 5, 2026
XRP decisively broke below the lower trendline of a multi-month bear pennant on February 4–5, 2026, printing a fresh 14-month low near $1.48 before partial recovery attempts toward $1.52. The breakdown follows a classic consolidation pattern that formed after XRP’s rejection at the $2.15–$2.20 zone in late December 2025 — a level that had acted as support throughout most of Q4.
Accompanying the price action was a sharp 43% collapse in XRP perpetual futures open interest (from ~$4.55 billion to $2.61 billion in under two weeks per Coinglass data), heavy long liquidations, and continued net outflows from U.S. spot XRP ETFs. This article provides a complete technical dissection of the bear pennant breakdown, key support targets (including the widely watched $1.22 zone), sentiment & on-chain context, and practical trading frameworks for navigating the current leg lower.
XRP Price Action & Bear Pennant Breakdown – February 2026
The bear pennant formed between mid-December 2025 and late January 2026:
- Flagpole: sharp drop from ~$2.15 (Dec 20 high) to ~$1.60 (early Jan low) — ~25% decline in 12 days
- Consolidation pennant: converging trendlines with decreasing volume, higher lows (~$1.62 → $1.68 → $1.72)
- Breakdown trigger: clean close below lower trendline (~$1.52–$1.53) on elevated volume Feb 4
- Measured move target: flagpole length (~$0.55) projected downward from breakout point → ~$1.22 (classic target zone)
Futures Open Interest Collapse & Liquidation Cascade
XRP perpetual futures open interest has fallen dramatically:
- Jan 20 peak: ~$4.55 billion
- Feb 5 current: ~$2.61 billion (–43% in ~2 weeks)
- 24h liquidations (Feb 4–5): >$180 million (mostly long-side)
The OI drop indicates:
- Significant long-position capitulation
- Reduced leverage in the market → lower probability of violent short squeezes
- Shift toward spot holding or hedging rather than directional leveraged bets
Negative funding rates (longs paying shorts at –0.01% to –0.04%) further confirm bearish dominance in the derivatives market — a condition that often persists until a clear capitulation bottom forms.
Technical Outlook – Key Levels & Scenarios
Current Price ~$1.51 (partial bounce from $1.48 low)
- Immediate Support: $1.48–$1.50 (intraday low zone)
- Next Major Support: $1.35–$1.38 (0.618 Fib retracement from 2025 low to high)
- Bear Target (measured move): $1.20–$1.22 (flagpole projection + psychological level)
- Deeper Bear Case: $0.95–$1.05 (2024 consolidation zone if $1.22 fails)
- Immediate Resistance: $1.58–$1.62 (prior pennant low + 20-day EMA)
- Medium-Term Resistance: $1.75–$1.80 (50-day EMA cluster)
- RSI (daily): ~28–34 → deeply oversold, reversal zone
- Fear & Greed Index (crypto-wide): ~14–19 → extreme fear, capitulation territory
Sentiment & On-Chain Context – February 2026
- U.S. spot XRP ETF outflows continued (~$18–$22M net redemptions past week)
- Exchange netflow: modest inflows to Binance & Coinbase → some distribution
- Long-term holder (LTH) supply: still increasing slightly → no widespread panic selling from strong hands
- Whale accumulation: wallets >1,000 XRP continued net buying on dips
- Social sentiment: overwhelmingly bearish (Twitter/X/X sentiment score ~18/100)
The divergence between short-term leveraged flush and longer-term holder behavior is a classic setup seen before previous XRP local bottoms (June 2022, Nov 2022, mid-2024).
Trading Strategies on Tapbit – February 2026
- Sign Up on Tapbit (0% maker fees)
- Deposit USDT or JPY via bank transfer / P2P
- Capitulation accumulation: DCA XRP/USDT on pullbacks to $1.35–$1.48 exhaustion zones
- Relief rally entry: Long XRP/USDT perpetuals on confirmed $1.58–$1.62 reclaim (20–50x leverage, isolated margin)
- Risk-off hedge: Long XAU/USDT perpetuals if macro/geopolitical fears intensify
- Risk control: Max 1–2% account risk per trade; trailing stops below recent lows
FAQs – XRP Bear Pennant Breakdown February 2026
Why did XRP break below $1.50?
Clean breakdown of multi-month bear pennant support (~$1.52–$1.53) on elevated volume, amplified by 43% drop in futures open interest, long liquidations and continued ETF outflows.
What is the measured move target after the pennant break?
Flagpole length (~$0.55) projected downward from breakout point → classic target around $1.20–$1.22.
Is $1.22 the final bottom for XRP?
Possible local floor if support holds and ETF flows stabilize. Break below opens risk toward $0.95–$1.05 (2024 consolidation zone). Sustained hold + volume would signal relief rally potential.
Should I buy XRP after the breakdown?
$1.35–$1.48 offers better risk/reward for staged entries if conviction is high. Wait for $1.58–$1.62 reclaim + higher volume before aggressive longs. Below $1.35 risks deeper test toward $1.20–$1.22.
Conclusion & Near-Term Outlook for XRP
XRP’s decisive break below $1.50 — confirming the multi-month bear pennant pattern — targets the classic measured move zone around $1.20–$1.22. The move has been accompanied by a 43% collapse in futures open interest, heavy long liquidations, and persistent ETF outflows — classic signs of leveraged flush and de-risking.
While short-term pressure remains elevated, the combination of deeply oversold technicals (RSI ~28–34), extreme fear readings (~14–19), and continued long-term holder accumulation closely resembles previous XRP capitulation phases that preceded powerful relief rallies.
Trade XRP volatility & capitulation zones on Tapbit:
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk of loss. Prices are highly volatile and can change rapidly. Technical patterns, open interest and ETF flows do not guarantee future results. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose completely.
