Published: February 4, 2026
MediaTek (TWSE: 2454) delivered solid Q4 2025 results on February 4, 2026, but CEO Rick Tsai used the earnings call to issue a stark warning: the global semiconductor supply chain — particularly advanced packaging and foundry capacity — is on track to become a major bottleneck for the explosive AI accelerator demand expected in 2026–2027. Tsai explicitly flagged that MediaTek will implement “profitability-based allocation” and selective price adjustments to cope with surging ASIC orders tied to NVIDIA partnerships (notably the GB10 superchip program).
The comments come as MediaTek’s AI ASIC revenue is projected to scale from ~$1 billion in 2026 to several billions by 2027, riding the hyperscaler build-out wave. With data-center ASIC TAM estimated at $50–70 billion annually by 2027 (Bernstein, Morgan Stanley), MediaTek’s pure-play positioning in cost-efficient custom silicon makes it one of the highest-conviction beneficiaries — but also exposes it to acute supply-side risks at TSMC and OSAT partners. This article breaks down the earnings snapshot, supply-chain warnings, growth drivers, competitive landscape, and trading considerations for MediaTek stock in the current AI-driven semis cycle.
Q4 2025 Earnings Snapshot (Reported February 4, 2026)
| Metric | Q4 2025 Actual | YoY Change | Consensus Beat/Miss | Forward Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | NT$150.2 billion (~$4.76B USD) | +8.8% | Beat (midpoint) | Acceleration expected 2026 |
| Net Profit | NT$23.1 billion | –3.6% | Inline | AI offsets margin pressure |
| Gross Margin | ~48–49% (non-GAAP est.) | Stable to slight up | Beat | Further expansion guided |
| AI ASIC Revenue Contribution | Rapidly rising | — | — | ~$1B 2026 → billions 2027 |
Source: MediaTek earnings release, analyst consensus (February 2026)
Supply Chain Warnings – Rick Tsai’s Key Message
CEO Rick Tsai used the call to deliver a candid assessment of the supply environment:
- “The global supply chain simply cannot meet the explosive demand for AI accelerators in 2026–2027.”
- Advanced packaging (CoWoS, SoIC) and CoWoS capacity at TSMC remain critically constrained through at least 2027.
- MediaTek will shift to “profitability-based allocation” — prioritizing high-margin customers and selectively raising prices to ration capacity.
- ASIC customers (including NVIDIA partners) are experiencing multi-quarter lead times → MediaTek expects pricing power to strengthen further in H1–H2 2026.
Tsai also noted that while MediaTek benefits from not competing in HBM (unlike Micron/SK hynix), the CoWoS bottleneck is now the primary chokepoint for the entire AI silicon ecosystem — including custom ASICs, GPUs, and accelerators.
Growth Drivers – AI ASIC Ramp & $50–70B TAM
MediaTek’s AI business is transitioning from early design wins to meaningful revenue:
- NVIDIA GB10 superchip collaboration: MediaTek supplies key ASICs for NVIDIA’s next-generation AI training/inference platforms (DGX Spark / DGX Cloud partners). Early feedback on performance-per-watt has been strong.
- Revenue trajectory: ~$1 billion in AI ASIC revenue expected in 2026, scaling aggressively to several billions by 2027 as hyperscaler deployments accelerate.
- TAM expansion: Bernstein and others estimate data-center ASIC TAM reaching $50–70 billion annually by 2027 (custom silicon for training, inference, edge AI), with MediaTek positioned as a cost-efficient alternative to full-custom designs.
- Non-AI tailwinds: 5G smartphone recovery, Wi-Fi 7/8 adoption, automotive, IoT — providing diversification.
MediaTek vs Peers – Competitive Positioning
| Company | AI ASIC / Custom Silicon Exposure | 2026 Revenue Est. Growth | Key Strength / Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| MediaTek (2454.TW) | High (ASICs for NVIDIA partners, custom accelerators) | +25–40% (AI-driven) | Cost-efficient designs, pricing power, no HBM capex distraction |
| Broadcom (AVGO) | Very high (custom silicon leader) | +30–50% | Dominant but premium valuation, heavy TSMC reliance |
| Marvell (MRVL) | High (DPUs, custom ASICs) | +25–35% | Strong data-center traction, but more diversified |
| Micron (MU) | Medium (HBM memory only) | +40–60% | HBM leader, but no ASIC design, higher capex burden |
Technical Setup & Sentiment – Early February 2026
Current Price Range: NT$1,200–1,300 range (post-earnings consolidation)
- Support: NT$1,150–1,180 (50-day MA)
- Resistance: NT$1,350–1,400 (prior highs)
- RSI (daily): ~62–68 (bullish but not overbought)
- Volume: Elevated post-earnings — strong conviction
Pattern: Higher lows since Q4 2025 → breakout above NT$1,350 targets NT$1,500+ on continued AI narrative strength.
Risks to Monitor in 2026
- Supply-chain bottlenecks: Prolonged CoWoS / advanced packaging shortages could cap shipment growth
- Customer concentration: Heavy reliance on NVIDIA ecosystem → any slowdown in Blackwell / Rubin ramp hits hard
- Geopolitical / trade risks: US–China tensions impacting TSMC capacity allocation or export controls
- Cyclical slowdown: If AI capex expectations moderate, NAND/ASIC pricing power could weaken
Conclusion & 2026 Outlook for MediaTek
MediaTek’s Q4 2025 results (NT$150.2B revenue +8.8% YoY) and aggressive Q1 2026 NAND pricing signals (55–60% hikes) confirm the company’s transition into an AI-first growth engine. CEO Rick Tsai’s candid warning about supply-chain bottlenecks underscores both the opportunity (pricing power, margin expansion) and the risk (potential shipment caps) in the $50–70B data-center ASIC supercycle.
With AI ASIC revenue scaling from ~$1B in 2026 to billions in 2027, and a valuation that remains attractive relative to peers, MediaTek offers one of the purest and highest-conviction ways to play the AI infrastructure build-out outside of NVIDIA itself.
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Disclaimer: Stock and cryptocurrency trading involve significant risk of loss. Prices are highly volatile and can change rapidly. Earnings guidance and supply-chain forecasts are estimates and not guaranteed. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose completely.
