Published & Updated: February 6, 2026 | Tapbit Bitcoin Treasury & Corporate Crypto Desk
MicroStrategy — now officially rebranded as Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR) — has seen its stock price collapse more than 75% from its November 2024 peak above $540, trading near $107 in early February 2026. The decline mirrors Bitcoin’s own correction from cycle highs near $126,000 to the low-to-mid $70,000s, turning the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder into one of the most volatile equities on the market.
Strategy holds approximately 673,783 BTC (latest public filings & on-chain estimates as of early February 2026), acquired at an average price of roughly $75,000–$76,000 per coin. While the Bitcoin treasury remains the company’s core asset, mark-to-market accounting has produced staggering unrealized losses — $17.44 billion in Q4 2025 alone — reversing prior gains and exposing shareholders to extreme volatility. This article dissects the timeline of the stock’s decline, the mechanics of the Bitcoin treasury strategy, why it has amplified losses, key risks, and realistic scenarios for recovery in 2026.
MSTR Stock Decline Timeline – From Peak to Present
| Period | MSTR Price Range | Change | Key Driver / BTC Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2024 Peak | $540+ | — | BTC near $108K–$126K cycle high |
| Q4 2025 | $540 → ~$250–$300 | –45–55% | BTC corrects to ~$94K–$100K; ETF outflows begin |
| Jan–Feb 2026 | $250–$300 → ~$107 | –55–65% further | BTC tests $72K; Bessent testimony removes bailout hope |
| YTD 2025 Total | –48%+ (on average) | — | Amplified BTC –27% YTD move via leverage & premium compression |
MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Treasury Strategy – How It Works
Since 2020, Strategy Inc (formerly MicroStrategy) has transformed from a business intelligence software company into the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder through a highly leveraged accumulation strategy:
- Funding mechanisms: At-the-market (ATM) equity offerings, convertible senior notes, preferred stock issuances, and low-cost debt
- Holdings: ~673,783 BTC (early February 2026 estimate), ~3.2–3.4% of total Bitcoin supply
- Average acquisition cost: ~$75,000–$76,000 per BTC (blended across all purchases)
- Current mark-to-market value: ~$62–$65 billion at BTC ~$93,000 (early Feb 2026 prices)
- Cash buffer: ~$2.25 billion USD cash reserves to cover interest, dividends, and operations
This structure creates a **high-beta Bitcoin proxy**: when BTC rises, MSTR tends to outperform significantly due to the embedded leverage and NAV premium; when BTC falls, the premium compresses and leverage works in reverse, producing outsized losses.
Unrealized Losses & Financial Impact
Mark-to-market accounting has produced massive swings:
- Q4 2025 unrealized loss: $17.44 billion (reversing Q3 gain of ~$3.9B)
- Full-year 2025 net loss: ~$5.4 billion, partially offset by ~$1.55B in tax benefits
- Current NAV premium: MSTR trades at roughly 1.09× its Bitcoin holdings value — near the low end of historical ranges (often 1.5–3× during bull phases)
While the Bitcoin treasury remains the dominant driver of enterprise value, the legacy software business now contributes minimally to cash flow, making the equity function primarily as a leveraged BTC vehicle.
Why the Strategy Has Faltered in 2026
Several factors have exposed vulnerabilities in the model:
- BTC price correction — Bitcoin’s ~27% YTD decline (from $100K+ average to ~$73K) has pushed average cost basis underwater for many later purchases
- Dilution from equity raises — ATM offerings at depressed prices are highly dilutive when the stock is falling
- No cash yield from BTC — Debt service and preferred dividends are paid in USD, while the primary asset (Bitcoin) generates no income
- Sentiment & positioning — High short interest (~10%) and tactical traders amplify volatility
If Bitcoin sustains weakness below $75,000, further dilution, credit rating pressure (S&P at B-minus), or forced sales could materialize — though the company’s cash buffer and low debt-service burden reduce immediate liquidation risk.
Trading & Positioning Considerations on Tapbit
- Sign Up on Tapbit (0% maker fees)
- Deposit USDT via bank transfer / P2P
- Cleaner BTC proxy: Long BTC/USDT perpetuals (isolated margin, 20–50x leverage) to capture Bitcoin upside without corporate dilution or financing risk
- Capitulation accumulation: DCA BTC/USDT on pullbacks to $72k–$74k exhaustion zones
- Risk-off hedge: Long XAU/USDT perpetuals during macro/geopolitical uncertainty
- Risk control: Max 1–2% account risk per trade; trailing stops below recent lows
FAQs – MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock Crash 2026
Why has MSTR stock fallen over 75% since 2024 peak?
MSTR acts as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy. BTC’s correction from $126K highs has been amplified by NAV premium compression, equity dilution from ATM offerings, and tactical trader positioning.
What is MicroStrategy’s average Bitcoin purchase price?
Approximately $75,000–$76,000 per BTC across all acquisitions (latest filings & estimates as of early February 2026).
Is MSTR still a good Bitcoin exposure vehicle?
It offers leveraged upside (and downside) compared to direct BTC or spot ETFs. Suitable for high-conviction cycle believers willing to accept dilution & volatility risk.
What does Canaccord’s $185 target mean?
It implies near-term downside but continued long-term optimism tied to Bitcoin’s cycle. The Buy rating signals analysts still expect eventual recovery if BTC stabilizes or rallies.
Conclusion & 2026 Outlook
MicroStrategy’s (Strategy Inc) 75%+ stock crash from its November 2024 peak reflects its role as a leveraged Bitcoin vehicle — magnifying BTC’s ~27% YTD correction through NAV premium compression, ongoing equity dilution, and tactical positioning. With ~673,783 BTC held at an average cost near $75,000–$76,000, the company remains the largest corporate treasury holder, but mark-to-market accounting has produced $17.44 billion in Q4 2025 unrealized losses.
Tapbit provides traders with cleaner alternatives to MSTR exposure: 0% maker fees on BTC/USDT spot & perpetuals, deep liquidity, up to 125x leverage (used sparingly), staking/yield options, and instant fiat ramps. Key levels to monitor: Bitcoin support at $72k–$74k, MSTR NAV premium behavior, February jobs report (Feb 7), Fed speakers, and ETF flow direction — capitulation extremes have historically preceded the strongest recoveries of the cycle.
Track Bitcoin & trade volatility on Tapbit:
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency and equity trading involve significant risk of loss. Prices are highly volatile and can change rapidly. Corporate Bitcoin holdings, analyst targets and financing structures do not guarantee future performance. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose completely.
